InstaForex Wave Analysis

[insta_poster]

USD/JPY Elliott Wave Count for January 26, 2012

Market Overview
Yesterday the USD/JPY pair with great confidence reached the level of 65 pips and formed the new high at level 78.27. Further the USD/JPY pair started the descending movement from this resistance level. The news concerning the negative financial situation in the USA influenced the exchange rate of the pair. As a result the yen has strengthened against US dollar. This major currency tested for a several times 50EMA support level before it has been broken down and then continued the bearish movement. At the moment the price is testing the 100EMA support level. In case the level 77.50 is passed through it will be possible to consider the 200EMA the next support level located near the point 77.20.
Support and Resistance
(S3)77.15 (S2)77.43 (S1)77.59 (PP)77.87 (R1)78.15 (R2)78.31 (R3)78.59
 
Important News
(JPY) CSPI y/y
(USD) Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
(USD) Unemployment Claims
(USD) Durable Goods Orders m/m
(USD) New Home Sales
(USD) CB Leading Index m/m
(USD) Natural Gas Storage
Elliott Wave Analysis for USD/JPY
Today the USD/JPY pair finished the wave 3 (A, B, C) correction within the bigger wave 4 at level 77.52 and started the movement to the final wave 5. According to our wave rules and concerning that the wave 5 is equal to the wave 1 we can probably define the target levels proceeding from the amount of the pips that were passed. As the wave passed 77 pips we can determine our target by adding 77 pips to end of the wave 4 at level 77.52. In this case we can see the prospective wave 5 at level 78.29. For stop loss level we can use the end of the wave 1 at level 77.31.

Trading Forecast
Taking into account Elliott Wave Rules we can expect that today the trend will go upwards. Thus, it is recommended to open long positions at level 77.70 with Stop Loss at level 77.31 and Take Profit at level 78.29.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 27, 2012, 01:08:01 AMGBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 26, 2011

GBP/JPY has developed five waves of medium term uptrend (colored red in the chart). The whole 5-wave cycle started from 117.22 and may end at 121.98. However if the price breaks above 121.98, we'll have an extension - in this case a new A-B-C cycle will be moving from 119.58 (this is the base of wave 5). Now the targets above are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.49-120.14-119.58 (these are waves 3 and 4), and 119.58-121.98-121.16.
Resistances:
- 122.23-24 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .50 retracement
- 122.64 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.42 = .618 ret
- 123.56 = OP
- 123.87 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 117.22-121.98, and expansions off 121.98-121.16-121.78.
Supports:
- 121.27 = COP
- 120.96 = OP
- 120.45 = XOP
- 120.16 = .382 ret

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 27, 2012, 01:09:33 AMAUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 26, 2011

Above 1.0573 AUD/USD is developing impulse subwave С (colored magenta in the chart) from 1.0427, that is part of impulse wave C of medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0231. On smaller scale the former subwave has its own subwaves of smaller degree - these are A, B and C (colored orange red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0444.
The targets above as of now are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0573-1.0427, 1.0427-1.0540-1.0444, 1.0444-1.0619-1.0588.
Resistances:
- 1.0638 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0696 = COP
- 1.0740 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0763-69 = confluence area of two objective points (OP)
However if the price reverses to the downside to correct the uptrend the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0444 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is still going up, that's why it's prefereable to open longs when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (25-35 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (50-60 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[badman]

Fundamental Analysis, January, 26 / 2012


The announcement of the Federal Reserve monetary policy data has brought a few surprises during the first game of the year.

Although there will be no change in interest rates, there is no need to postpone any decision to stay very close to zero from mid 2013 until 2014.

The situation undergoes changes in terms of controlled inflation, even after some last year’s money infusions and so-called "Operation Twist", as well as and the creation of jobs indicating the slight but slow improvements.

The first conclusion is that the Fed for many years has not been seeing the signs of economic recovery and with the measures announced today left the possibility of a new stimulus for the economy by injecting money (QE).

This fact can be observes as well in the Fed’s report concerning its forecasts of economic growth for this year defined in the range from 2.2 to 2.5%. For the next year the growth is expected to be between 2.8 and 3.2%.

The announcement was followed by the overall decrease of the dollar. Once again the US dollar lost its advantages as an investment currency and as a hope for investors.

In this regard, we believe that the dollar acting in this way provides the greater freedom for the various activities against it. In other words, regardless the negative news from Europe, the euro exchange rate could be affected without being influenced by other currencies.

Of course, the NYSE shares closed with a good profit and continued its growth till the end of the day. The Dow Jones reached its highest level since July 2011.


The ounce of gold has also "flew" after the Fed’s announcement and by the end of American session in a couple of hours collected more than $ 60 in quotes.

As for the currencies, the dollar was the one that stood in the breach. Almost immediately the euro has broken the area of �‹�‹1.31, completing 190 points between the daily minimum and maximum. The pound and Swiss franc followed the same tendency.

From the European point of view, there is nothing new. The same speeches, twists, elapsed time, Greece which is expected to set out the side and the debt, or bankruptcy, out of the euro and return to the drachma. Following the IMF, the European Central Bank, banks and European finance committees are playing with fire.

The European session on Thursday reflects what has happened the night before. The DAX 30, CAC 40 and FTSE 100 shares were very successful. The first brought the index to its highest level in the end of July, with a slight profit taking during the last few minutes, but remaining the bullish trend.

Of course the European currencies rose significantly, although the price curves across the EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / CHF pairs indicate the possible trend exhaustion.

The agenda includes information required in the weekly Thursday durable goods orders and jobless rates at 8:30 ET. At 10:00 the new turn of home sales will take place.

   
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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GOLD - Bullish Outlook, Juanary 26, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






GOLD

 

The ounce of gold appreciated strongly over $60 yesterday, reaching the maximum of 1,719 during the European session, this increase happened as the Federal Reserve Committee acted in accord to its commitment to keep interest rates at levels exceptionally low until the end of 2014.
The price of gold could undergo some corrections, maybe the American session close can be interpreted as profit-taking after record intraday trade with huge profits. However, in the medium term gold is expected to continue its uptrend.
At the technical level we can see that gold has broken its long-term downtrend, which began in September 2011, and now is in a short-term uptrend. As for the Pivot levels, gold passed through the third weekly resistance (R_3), making corrections and retracing to continue its way up to 1,790 dollars per ounce.
Momentum indicators and Range show signs of a possible downward correction.

 

   
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Count for January 30, 2012

Market Overview
The EUR/JPY pair was following the bullish movement for the last 10 days. Today after the Asian has been opened session we could observe the slight descending movement of the pair and the breakdown of the 50EMA support at level 101.29. Then we could observe the breakdown of the 100EMA support at level 101.06 in early European session. We think that today the EUR/JPY pair is likely to brake 200EMA resistance level during the New York session. Also we expect the continuation of the downtrend for the next few days.
Support and Resistance
(S3)100.20 (S2)100.57 (S1)100.81 (PP)101.18 (R1)101.55 (R2)101.79 (R3)102.16
Important News
(EUR) German Prelim CPI m/m
(EUR) EU Economic Summit

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis
The EUR/JPY pair completed the wave B of the bigger wave (B) at the 101.44 level, and started the 5th wave within the final C wave. According to our wave rules and assuming that the wave C is equal to the wave A we can define our target points with Fibonacci Extension (102.19-100.56-101.44) to the 99.80 level. For Stop loss level we can use end of wave B at the level 101.44.

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules today we can expect the downward movement of the trend. That is why SHORT position at level 100.70 with Stop Loss at level 101.44 and Take Profit at level 99.80 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 30, 2012, 04:18:37 PMGBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 30, 2011

GBP/JPY reversed to the downside from 121.98 to develop corrective wave B of medium term uptrend. This wave is colored magenta in the chart, and is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree that is developing from 117.22. Now, this B wave has four subwaves (colored orange red in the chart) with corrective subwave 4 developing from 119.95.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 117.22-121.98, and expansions off 121.98-121.16-121.81, 121.81-119.95-120.67.
Supports:
- 119.66-60 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and .50 retracement
- 119.52 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 119.04 = .618 ret
- 118.81 = OP
However if the price reverses to the upside to continue the uptrend the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.98-119.95, 121.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.95.
Resistances:
- 120.73 = .382 retracement
- 120.97 = .50 ret
- 121.20 = .618 ret
- 122.24 = .50 ret
- 122.89 = COP
- 123.42 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, therefore it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (35-50 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 30, 2012, 04:20:41 PMAUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 30, 2011

AUD/USD has reversed for a correction of impulse wave C of medium term uptrend (colored magenta in the chart) that started from 1.0427. This wave, however, is part of impulse wave C of a larger degree (colored royal blue in the chart) that started from 1.0231.
As far as the corrective move goes, its targets are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0231-1.0687, 1.0427-1.0687, and expansions off 1.0687-1.0591-1.0669, 1.0669-1.0596-1.0666.
Supports:
- 1.0557 = .50 retracement
- 1.0548 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0526 = .618 ret
- 1.0514-13 = confluence area of .382 ret andXOP
- 1.0475 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
However if the price breaks above 1.0687 to continue the uptrend we'll calculate the resistances using Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0573-1.0427.
Resistances:
- 1.0769 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0838 = SXOP

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is still moving up, so it's prefereable to open longs when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (15-30 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[badman]

GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for January 30 - February 3, 2012


The pivot point (PPV) is a support/resistance level. It considers the largest price movement that can occur within a particular price. The pivot points are used in many ways, but generally they help to determine the overall market trend and to identify entry and exit levels.

 

The charts of the weekly and monthly pivots can be used as a plan for trading on Forex as they help in identifying the possible points of entry and exit. It is recommended to use this tool with other indicators you prefer.

You can copy or save the weekly pivot levels for easy reference. You will be informed beforehand about the market fluctuations namely the rebound of the market or the change of a trend.

If you have a trading strategy system, the levels of pivots can help you to define the level for Take profit and Stop Loss orders.

BUY-deals are recommended at (S2) Support level 2; SELL-deals are recommended at (R_2) resistance level 2 and Take profit on the pivot point.

 

 

_____WEEKLY____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6028
Weekly - R2 = 1.5884
Weekly - R1 = 1.5805
Weekly Pivot = 1.5661
Weekly - S1 = 1.5582
Weekly - S2 = 1.5438
Weekly - S3 = 1.5359

 

 

_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.6163
Monthly - R2 = 1.5968
Monthly - R1 = 1.5751
Monthly Pivot = 1.555
Monthly - S1 = 1.5374
Monthly - S2 = 1.5046
Monthly - S3 = 1.4668




   
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for January 30 - February 3, 2012


The pivot point (PPV) is a support/resistance level. It takes into account the largest price movement that can take place in a particular price. The pivot points are used in many ways, but generally they serve to determine the overall market trend and to identify the levels of entry and exit.

 

The charts of the weekly and monthly pivots can be used as a plan for trading on Forex as they help to identify the possible points of entry and exit. You can use this tool with other indicators you prefer.

You can copy or save the weekly pivot levels for easy reference. You will be given a notification beforehand concerning the market fluctuations as a rebound of the market or change of a trend.

If you have a trading strategy system, you can use the levels of pivots to define the level for Take profit and Stop Loss orders.

BUY-deals are recommended at (S2) Support level 2; SELL-deals are recommended at (R_2) resistance level 2 and Take profit on the pivot point.

 

 

____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.3704
Weekly - R2 = 1.3468
Weekly - R1 = 1.3344
Weekly Pivot = 1.3108
Weekly - S1 = 1.2984
Weekly - S2 = 1.2748
Weekly - S3 = 1.2624


 

____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.4066
Monthly - R2 = 1.3808
Monthly - R1 = 1.3374
Monthly Pivot = 1.3116
Monthly - S1 = 1.2682
Monthly - S2 = 1.2424
Monthly - S3 = 1.1990

 


 

   
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com


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USD/CAD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, for January 30 - February 3, 2012


The pivot point (PPV) is a support/resistance level. It considers the largest price movement that can occur in a particular price. The pivot points are used in many ways, but generally are used to determine the overall market trend and to identify entry and exit levels.

 

In the charts of the weekly and monthly pivots they can be used as a plan for trading on Forex as it helps to identify possible points of entry and exit. It is recommended to use this tool, pivot points with other indicators you prefer.

You can copy or save the weekly pivot levels for easy reference. You will be informed beforehand about the market fluctuations namely the rebound of the market or the change of a trend.

If you have a trading strategy system, the levels of pivots can help you to define the level for Take profit and Stop Loss orders.

BUY-deals are recommended at (S2) Support level 2; SELL-deals are recommended at (R_2) resistance level 2 and Take profit on the pivot point.

 

____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0303
Weekly - R2 = 1.0232
Weekly - R1 = 1.0124
Weekly Pivot = 1.0053
Weekly - S1 = 0.9945
Weekly - S2 = 0.9874
Weekly - S3 = 0.9766

 

 

____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.0773
Monthly - R2 = 1.0598
Monthly - R1 = 1.0401
Monthly Pivot = 1.0226
Monthly - S1 = 1.0029
Monthly - S2 = 0.9854
Monthly - S3 = 0.9657




   
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 31, 2011

AUD/USD has finished corrective subwave B (colored red in the chart) at 1.0525 (.618 retracement of subwave A), and now is developing potential impulse subwave C that is part of impulse wave C of a larger degree (colored magenta in the chart) that started from 1.0427.
Now the targets above the current price are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0573-1.0427, 1.0427-1.0687-1.0525.
Resistances:
- 1.0686 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0769 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0785 = OP
- 1.0838 = SXOP
However if the price reverses down for a corrective wave of larger degree the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0427-1.0687, 1.0231-1.0687.
Supports:
- 1.0526 = .618 retracement
- 1.0513 = .382 ret
- 1.0459 = .50 ret
- 1.0405 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is still moving up, so it's prefereable to open longs when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (5-10 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (30-45 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 31, 2012, 03:46:39 PMGBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 31, 2011

GBP/JPY reversed to the downside from 121.98 to develop corrective wave B of medium term uptrend. This wave is colored magenta in the chart, and is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree that is developing from 117.22.
As of now the corrective wave has five subwaves (colored orange red in the chart), and potential corrective wave A is developing against the five waves from 119.53.
Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 117.22-121.98, and expansions off 121.81-119.95-120.67.
Supports:
- 119.52 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 119.04 = .618 retracement
- 118.81 = objective point (OP)
- 117.66 = expanded objective point (XOP)
However if the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.98-119.53, 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53.
Resistances:
- 120.47 = .382 retracement
- 120.76 = .50 ret
- 121.04 = .618 ret
- 122.24 = .50 ret
- 122.47 = COP
- 123.42 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, therefore it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-20 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[badman]

Fundamental Analysis for January 31, 2012


 

After another summit 25 European countries made a decision to sign a new fiscal pact. According to this agreement the countries pledge not to spend money in the future.

 

The statement is not controversial: at least it is clear that there will be no overspendings so far. The commitment of the 3% deficit to GDP, signed at the time, has not found any support.

On the other hand, do these principles mean that the past is no more taking into account? No more spending from now, reasonable decisions and discipline. But who is going to pay for this?

While leaders participate in meetings and discussions approving the treaties that are quite similar, the unemployment rate reaches over 23 million.

There are countries on the brink of bankruptcy that is expected to occur in less than 60 days. But that is not the appropriate topic for discussion.

During the Monday's trading session the situation did not changed much except a very slight recovery of the dollar. The Wall Street shares (the main at least) hardly moved and reached the new low.

In this regard, the Tuesday’s European session was opened with remarkable results. Surprisingly, German retail sales fell 1.4%, which is the key event of the day as Germany is considered the engine of the continent. Therefore, this fact was the reason for significant concerns.

All these facts indicate the high probability of recession in Europe. Germany remains the only country that will avoid this.

Nevertheless, the euro zone again exceeds 1.32 in these times. The main stock exchanges, namely in Frankfurt, London and in Paris, represented by the DAX 30, FTSE 100 and DAX 30 are experiencing the ascending movement and can be considered a hope for some period of time.

On Tuesday the British pound and the euro have slightly increased along with the consumer confidence index in Britain, while the Swiss franc, faithful follower of the euro, also closed the deals at its monthly maximum.

It is necessary to mention that the most of the currencies initiated the upward movement during these last hours of the month, having closed at the same highs that do not correspond with the economic situation of their countries.

Generally, the Chicago PMI at 9:45 ET and the consumer confidence index released by the Conference Board at 10:00 ET is the crucial data for the American session.

 

   
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 1, 2011

AUD/USD has finished the whole wave from 1.0231 to 1.0687, according to wave count it is impulse wave 3 (colored royal blue in the chart), and now potential corrective wave 4 is developing against the uptrend from 1.0687. Within this wave we have three subwaves (colored red in the chart) - A, B, and potential C. Subwave C will be confirmed when the price breaks below 1.0525 - top of subwave A.
Now the targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0231-1.0687, and expansions off 1.0687-1.0525-1.0684.
Supports:
- 1.0522 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0513 = .382 retracement
- 1.0459 = .50 ret
- 1.0422 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0405 = .618 ret
However if the price breaks above 1.0687 to continue the uptrend the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525.
Resistances:
- 1.0807 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0838 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0981 = OP

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to open short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (35-50 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: February 02, 2012, 01:05:41 AMGBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 1, 2011

GBP/JPY reversed to the downside from 121.98 to develop corrective wave B of medium term uptrend (colored magenta in the chart). This wave has two subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave B still developing from 119.53. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 121.98-119.53, 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53.
Resistances:
- 120.76 = .50 ret
- 121.04 = .618 ret
- 122.24 = .50 ret
- 122.47 = contracted objective point (COP)
If the price breaks below 119.53 to continue the downtrend the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 117.22-121.98, and expansions off 121.98-119.53-120.57.
Supports:
- 119.06-04 = confluence area of COP and .618 retracement
- 118.12 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, therefore it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (25-35 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: February 03, 2012, 01:56:12 AMAUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 2, 2011

AUD/USD broke above 1.0687 to continue the uptrend. Therefore corrective wave 4 (1.0687-1.0525 - colored royal blue in the chart) is over and now we have wave 5 that is developing from 1.0525. Inside this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored red in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 1.0569.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0684-1.0569.
Resistances:
- 1.0807 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0826 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0838 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0525-1.0756.
Supports:
- 1.0668 = .382 retracement
- 1.0640 = .50 ret
- 1.0613 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (20-35 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities going short at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: February 03, 2012, 01:58:23 AMGBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 2, 2011

GBP/JPY has just developed corrective wave B of medium term uptrend (colored magenta in the chart), and now potential impulse wave C is developing from 119.53.
The targets above are Fibonacci retracements of 121.98-119.53, 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53.
Resistances:
- 121.04 = .618 ret
- 122.24 = .50 ret
- 122.47 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.42 = .618 ret
However, if the downmove continues the immediate supports will be Fibnoacci retracements of 117.22-121.98, and expansions off 121.98-119.53-120.92.
Supports:
- 119.41 = COP
- 119.04 = .618 ret
- 118.47 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (25-40 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[badman]

Fundamental Analysis, February 02, 2012


 

The debt situation in Greece has reached its deadlock even from an optimistic point of view, considering that some investors worry about the future of the euro.

 

According to the data released by ADP, the number of jobs created across the Atlantic region was lower than expected, but still significantly higher than in previous months.

Friday will become a real trial, as the employment data released by the Labor Department caused significant movements in the USD pairs movement.

With the respective European currencies we can observe the moderate upward trends. Presently the yen stands in the focus as it is approaching again the record high against the dollar. As the Bank of Japan stated before, it will not intervene in the exchange rate or take some emergency measure that prove to be ineffective over time with little impact in early hours.

It is necessary to mention the decreased oil prices. WTI barrel is lower than $ 100 and is trading at 96.83 at the moment. But there is no significant impact on their currencies, namely the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso.

Meanwhile, Gold remains above $ 1740 per ounce, which in turn initiates the upward movemen of the Australian dollar approaching the area of the 1.07 level.

Concerning the time of news release, the weekly unemployment requests, which will be announced at 8:30 EST and the presentation of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in Congress at 10:00, will be the key events for Thursday’s U.S. trading session.

 

   
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD Bearish Outlook for February 2, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






EUR/USD

 

The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.3108 level indicating an upward trend. It remains in the overbuy zone despite the short-term uptrend breakdown. The weekly pivot line and the moving average of 50 periods are considered the support levels. At these levels SELL-deals are recommended. Otherwise it will be possible to wait until the end of the week: if the pair continues the ascending movement, we can enter the market and gain a profit by making the short-term deals till the second weekly pivot 1.2748 is reached.

 

On the other hand, the Momentum indicator is in overbought area indicating the bearish signals.

 

   
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com

[badman]

Fundamental Analysis for February 3, 2012


 

The recovery of the U.S. economy on Friday has a litmus test in its most sensitive variable: the creation of jobs during the month of January.
According to previous estimates, is expected to have generated about 150,000 jobs last month, a figure much lower than in December, which in any case is subject to revision.
This fact remains, despite its ups and downs, the most important of the month, and takes effect during the coming weeks. The rate of unemployment, which President Obama obsessively fixed his attention, for re-election in November, would be unchanged at 8.5%. Both reports will be published as usual, at 8:30 Eastern.
At 10:00 ISM services will be announced, which could increase this month strongly compared to the previous measurement, endorsing a good number of jobs created, if this indeed is confirmed.
In any case, as we repeat every month, it is always best to wait until the effects dissipate jobs data and the different currency pairs take a definite trend, before entering the market. This type of data often leads to sudden movements in prices, which leveraged markets can have a devastating effect.
Remember this is a market, not a game of chance, and win in the marketplace responds to a good analysis of it, many hours of work, and not a simple riddle of who is right price direction at a given time.
Averaging the European session on Friday, major indexes of the old continent operate with gains of 0.3% on average, while Dow Jones futures show an uptrend in the short term. The same could be confirmed if the data of U.S. employment is positive.
As for currencies, have no relevant movements, as usual in the hours leading up to major reports. The major pairs’ prices have hardly changed since the close of U.S. session on Thursday, and is not expected to change until publication of the jobs report.
To take into account: the Swiss National Bank said, as did the Bank of Japan, who will defend the exchange rate of the franc to 1.20 against the euro as often as necessary. In other words, is imminent intervention of the franc against the euro, and therefore against the dollar. On the side of the BoJ, the situation is similar, and a movement towards 75.55 yen alarms turn ON the intervention. The exchange rate EUR / CHF is 1.2047 at the time, just a few points above the barrier set by the SNB.

 

   
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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NZD/USD Strong Resistance at 0.8385 (Daily Strategy)






NZD/USD

The New Zealand Dollar - U.S. dollar pair correlates with the stock markets around the world and the index level of fear marks a sharp decline in investor concerns.

At the technical level we see a marked upward trend, the pair has been detained by the second weekly resistance 0.8385, given that today is a weekend, there are fundamental data on the U.S. economy. It is important to take precautions due to market volatility.


We recommend you sell in (R_2) weekly. with a short-term objective 0.8178, just at the level of the uptrend line.

The Momentum indicator has entered into overbought area, there may be a change in trend.

 

 

   
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

EUR/AUD Elliott wave count for February 6, 2012


Market Overview
The EUR/AUD pair is trading in short term bearish channel for last 6 days, Friday's Trading pushed this major to record low to 1.2170 level. Today in the early Asian session we could observe a slight downward movement below the 1.2200 level.We got Retail Sales from Australia report lower then expected today in Asia but market did not react on this news. In case level 1.2165 is passed trough the point 1.2100 will be considered as next support level.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3)1.2084 (S2)1.2142 (S1)1.2178 (PP)1.2236 (R1)1.2294 (R2)1.2330 (R3)1.2388

Important News
(AUD)Retail Sales m/m
(AUD)ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
(EUR)Sentix Investor Confidence
(EUR)German Factory Orders m/m

EUR/AUD Elliott Wave Analysis
EUR/AUD pair finish 5 waves down movement in iii wave at 1.2173, And we start 3 corrective waves in iv wave, Wave A finished correction at 1.2228 level and we expect to see soon the end of wave B and start of final C wave in iv wave.Concerning our wave rules and assuming that wave C will be equal to wave A we can project our potential targets with Fibonacci extensions(1.2173-1.228-1.2190) to 1.2242 level. We can use end of wave iii for our stop loss.

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the upward movement to go higher today. That is why LONG position at levels 1.2200 with Stop Loss at 1.2173 and Take Profit at 1.2242 are recommended
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: February 06, 2012, 04:00:32 PMGBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 6, 2011

From 119.53 GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored magenta in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored royal blue in the chart). Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B and C (colored red in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 120.16.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 121.98-119.53, 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-120.92-120.16, 120.16-121.16-120.75.

Resistances:

- 121.37 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 121.55 = objective point (OP)
- 121.75 = OP
- 122.24 = .50 ret
- 122.37-41-47 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP) and COP

However, if the downmove continues the immediate supports will be Fibnoacci retracements of 119.53-121.16.

Supports:

- 120.54 = .382 retracement
- 120.35 = .50 ret
- 120.15 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (25-35 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
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Post Merge: February 06, 2012, 04:03:05 PMAUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 6, 2011

From 1.0525 AUD/USD is moving within wave 5 of medium term uptrend (this wave is colored royal blue in the chart). Inside this wave there are A, B and C subwaves, with subwave C still developing from 1.0671 (colored magenta in the chart). The latter subwave also has its minor waves - they are A and B that is developing from 1.0793 (colored orange red in the chart).

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0756-1.0671.

Resistances:

- 1.0807 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0814 = COP
- 1.0838 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0902 = objective point (OP)

However if the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0525-1.0793.

Supports:

- 1.0691 = .382 retracement
- 1.0659 = .50 ret
- 1.0627 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (30-45 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Post Merge: February 07, 2012, 05:11:53 PMEUR/AUD Elliott wave count for February 7, 2012


Market Overview
EUR/AUD pair continued to trade inside bearish channel yesterday in slight bullish mood to 50EMA Support around 1.2250 level where this major pair finished first trading day.Today in Asia we could observe downward movement of the EUR/AUD pair to the 1.2140 level.European session did not manage to hold this level and we can observe slight upward movement.We expect this pair to test 50 EMA resistance level before we can see EURO-AUSSIE above 1.2250.


Support and Resistance levels
(S3)1.2156 (S2)1.2181 (S1)1.2197 (PP)1.2221 (R1)1.2246 (R2)1.2262 (R3)1.2286

Important News
(EUR)French Trade Balance
(EUR)German Industrial Production m/m
(AUD)Cash Rate
(AUD)RBA Rate Statement


EUR/AUD Elliott Wave Analysis
Euro-Aussie pair finished iv wave at 1.2255 level, wave v at 1.2140 level and we are currently in a corrective wave, we can expect wave a to finish with 5 subways above end of wave iv,this level we can use for our potential take profit level and for stop loss we can use end of v wave.
alternation: wave v is not over, if price starts to fall under 1.2140 level we can go short for end of v wave to take profit level at 1.2050 .For stop loss we can use big resistance at 1.2180


Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the upward movement to go higher today. That is why LONG position at levels 1.2190 with Stop Loss at 1.2140 and Take Profit at 1.2255 are recommended

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: February 07, 2012, 05:12:11 PMEUR/AUD Elliott wave count for February 7, 2012


Market Overview
EUR/AUD pair continued to trade inside bearish channel yesterday in slight bullish mood to 50EMA Support around 1.2250 level where this major pair finished first trading day.Today in Asia we could observe downward movement of the EUR/AUD pair to the 1.2140 level.European session did not manage to hold this level and we can observe slight upward movement.We expect this pair to test 50 EMA resistance level before we can see EURO-AUSSIE above 1.2250.


Support and Resistance levels
(S3)1.2156 (S2)1.2181 (S1)1.2197 (PP)1.2221 (R1)1.2246 (R2)1.2262 (R3)1.2286

Important News
(EUR)French Trade Balance
(EUR)German Industrial Production m/m
(AUD)Cash Rate
(AUD)RBA Rate Statement


EUR/AUD Elliott Wave Analysis
Euro-Aussie pair finished iv wave at 1.2255 level, wave v at 1.2140 level and we are currently in a corrective wave, we can expect wave a to finish with 5 subways above end of wave iv,this level we can use for our potential take profit level and for stop loss we can use end of v wave.
alternation: wave v is not over, if price starts to fall under 1.2140 level we can go short for end of v wave to take profit level at 1.2050 .For stop loss we can use big resistance at 1.2180


Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the upward movement to go higher today. That is why LONG position at levels 1.2190 with Stop Loss at 1.2140 and Take Profit at 1.2255 are recommended

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: February 07, 2012, 05:14:26 PMGBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 7, 2011

GBP/JPY is now developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored royal blue in the chart). Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 120.16.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-121.16-120.42.

Resistances:

- 121.43 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.05 = objective point (OP)
- 122.24 = .50 ret
- 122.47 = COP

However, if the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 119.53 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (10-20 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: February 07, 2012, 05:16:29 PMAUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 7, 2011

From 1.0525 AUD/USD is trading within wave 5 of medium term uptrend (this wave is colored royal blue in the chart). This wave consists of A, B and C subwaves, with subwave C still developing from 1.0671 (colored magenta in the chart). This subwave also has its smaller waves - A, B and C (colored red in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 1.0682.

The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0756-1.0671, 1.0671-1.0793-1.0682, 1.0682-1.0745-1.0701.

Resistances:

- 1.0808-04-07 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP), objective point (OP), and contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0814 = COP
- 1.0838 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0866 = SXOP
- 1.0879 = XOP
- 1.0902 = objective point (OP)

If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0682 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (40-50 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (70-85 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 8, 2011

From 1.0525 AUD/USD is developing wave 5 of medium term uptrend (this wave is colored royal blue in the chart). This wave consists of A, B and C subwaves, with subwave C still developing from 1.0671 (colored magenta in the chart). This subwave also has its smaller waves - A, B and C (colored red in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 1.0682. Even this wave has its own subwaves - they are A, B, and potential C from 1.0762 (colored orange red in the chart).

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0756-1.0671, 1.0671-1.0793-1.0682, 1.0682-1.0821-1.0762, 1.0762-1.0816-1.0782.

Resistances:

- 1.0836-38 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0848 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0869 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0879 = XOP
- 1.0901-02 = confluence area of two OP's

If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0682 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (25-35 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (55-70 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: February 09, 2012, 01:24:39 AMGBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 8, 2011

GBP/JPY is now developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored royal blue in the chart). The impulse started from 119.53. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 120.16. This wave has its waves of a smaller degree - A, B, and C that is still developing from 121.85 (colored orange red in the chart).

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-121.16-120.42, 120.42-122.18-121.85.

Resistances:

- 122.94 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.06 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 123.42 = .618 retracement
- 123.61 = objective point (OP)

However, if the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 120.42 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (30-40 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (50-60 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[badman]

Fundamental Analysis, February, 10 / 2012


 

Everything happened in the last 24 hours in Europe, although its purpose if it is not announced, the less predictable: the rescue of Greece was delayed further by the European Union.

Such is the lack of political will, lack of leadership and the inability of all stakeholders, that is noticeable from a distance and in advance that things go wrong.

If everything was agreed on Monday, why everything was postponed two days? If sending money as part of bailout plan depended on the adoption by Greece of the measures of "austerity" and other euphemisms, and this actually happened, what is the problem now?

The answer is simple: Greece makes no warranty of any kind, which to date has not yet taken the debt at a very low cost, and the rest of Europe knows, and mistrust of a debtor who has always failed their commitments.

In addition, the Union appears to act for public order problems, not solve, to take the moral high ground and almost extortion, raising the conditions imposed whenever the above are met .

The answer is simple: Greece makes no warranties of any kind-which until now did not yet taken the debt to a very low cost, and the rest of Europe knows it, and distrust of a debtor who has always failed their commitments.

Moreover, the Union appears to act for the public and not to solve problems, to take the moral high ground and almost extortion, raising the conditions imposed whenever the above are met.

To keep this state of affairs, it is likely that Europe will eventually send 14,400 million euros Greece needs it or do pay next month to avoid falling into default, and this game will continue indefinitely until the Greeks give up. That's the next step in sight.

Markets accounted for a further disappointment on this issue, and Friday's European session presents sharp drops in all major markets, while the euro fell as far away from 1.3320, the highest on Thursday and in recent weeks.

Yield also, albeit much weaker, pound sterling, whose medium-term uptrend has been breached, but without further confirmation to the breakdown of it, and the Australian dollar and Canadian.

The feeling is that it will generate a further fall in all leading currencies against the dollar, and that this will take hold, to varying degrees, but with special emphasis to the euro and the currencies linked to gold and oil.

The day's news agenda includes trade balance figures in Canada and the United States, both at 8:30 Eastern, and the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan / Reuters

   
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 13, 2011

AUD/USD is developing impulse wave 5 of medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0525, that is part of wave A of a larger degree from 1.0145 (colored light green in the chart). Now this wave has subwaves A and B, with subwave B still developing from 1.0844 (colored magenta in the chart). Within the latter there are A and B subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave B still developing from 1.0639.

The targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844.

Supports:

- 1.0577 = .382 retracement
- 1.0495 = .50 ret
- 1.0412 = .618 ret

If the price keeps moving up, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0844-1.0639.

Resistances:

- 1.0836 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0958 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0981 = OP

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (25-30 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (45-60 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com




Post Merge: February 14, 2012, 01:09:46 AMGBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 13, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 121.34. Subwave C was confirmed when the price broke above 122.79 (top of subwave A).

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-122.79-121.34, 121.34-123.11-121.98.

Resistances:

- 123.07 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.35-42 = confluence area of COP and .618 retracement
- 123.75 = objective point (OP)
- 124.29 = OP

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.53-123.11.

Supports:

- 121.74 = .382 retracement
- 121.32 = .50 ret
- 120.90 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (25-35 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: February 15, 2012, 12:45:37 AMAUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 14, 2011

AUD/USD is moving wihtin impulse wave 5 of medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart) that started from 1.0525, this wave is part of wave A of a larger degree from 1.0145 (colored light green in the chart). Now the former wave has subwaves A, and B, with subwave B still developing from 1.0777 (colored magenta in the chart). Within the latter there are A, B, and C subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0777.

The targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844, and expansions off 1.0844-1.0639-1.0777.

Supports:

- 1.0650 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0577-72 = confluence area of .382 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 1.0495 = .50 ret
- 1.0445 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0412 = .618 ret

If the price keeps moving up, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0844-1.0639.

Resistances:

- 1.0836 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0958 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0981 = OP

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (20-35 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: February 15, 2012, 12:48:19 AMGBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 14, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 121.34. Subwave C was confirmed when the price broke above 122.79 (top of subwave A). However it will be over if the price breaks below 121.34.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-122.79-121.34, 121.34-123.11-121.62.

Resistances:

- 122.71 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.35-39-42 = confluence area of COP, objective point (OP), and .618 retracement
- 123.75 = OP
- 124.29 = OP

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.53-123.11, and expansions off 123.11-121.98-122.86.

Supports:

- 121.32 = .50 ret
- 121.03 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 120.90 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (30-35 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (60-75 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 15, 2011

AUD/USD is still developing impulse wave 5 of medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart) that started from 1.0525, this wave is part of wave A of a larger degree from 1.0145 (colored light green in the chart). Now the former wave has subwaves A, B, and C, with potential subwave C still developing from 1.0628 (colored magenta in the chart).

The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0844-1.0628, and expansions off 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0844-1.0629.

Resistances:

- 1.0761 = .618 retracement
- 1.0825 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0947 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0981 = OP

If the price reverses to the downside the targets below will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844.

Supports:

- 1.0577 = .382 retracement
- 1.0495 = .50 ret
- 1.0412 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (40-45 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (70-85 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: February 16, 2012, 03:45:49 AMGBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 15, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 121.62.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-123.11-121.62, 121.62-123.00-122.45.

Resistances:

- 123.42 = .618 retracement
- 123.83 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and objective point (OP)
- 124.29 = OP
- 124.68 = expanded objective point (XOP)

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 121.62 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (40-55 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: February 16, 2012, 02:49:03 PMUSD/CAD Elliott wave count for February 16, 2012


Market Overview
The USD/CAD pair was trading in a upward move yesterday, in a early European session this major pair tested 50 EMA 2 time before a price broke above the 200 EMA resistance line.Today in a Asian session price continued in a bullish mood and price reached a new high at the 1.0030 level, in a European session price continued to push reaching the 1.0050 level.We are expecting to see breaking to the 0.9954 level today.We need to take a look at USA Building Permits, PPI m/m,Unemployment Claims,Philly Fed Manufacturing Index that could affect this pair

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9914 (S2) 0.9939 (S1) 0.9954 (PP) 0.9979 (R1) 1.0004 (R2) 1.0019 (R3) 1.0044

USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis
The USD/CAD pair finished (1) wave of the bigger iii wave at 1.0051 today, and started 3 corrective waves in (2) wave.According to our wave rules and taking into consideration that wave (2) will retrace 61.8% or 78.6% of wave (1) we can project our targets with Fibonacci retracement(1.0051-0.9937) to first take profit level at 0.9981(61.8% of wave (1)) and second take profit at 0.9962(78.6% of wave (1).For stop loss we can use end of wave i at 1.0051.

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the downward movement to go lower today. That is why Short position at levels 1.0020 with Stop Loss at 1.0051, Take Profit at 0.9981 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9962 are recommended
   
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: February 16, 2012, 02:52:48 PMGBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 16, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 121.62. Within C we have A, and B subwaves (colored red in the chart), with subwave B still developing from 123.44.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-123.11-121.62, 121.62-123.44-122.55.

Resistances:

- 123.42 = .618 retracement
- 123.67 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.83 = COP
- 124.29 = objective point (OP)
- 124.37 = OP

If the price keeps falling the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.62-123.44, 119.53-123.44, and expansions off 123.44-122.55-123.12.

Supports:

- 122.57-53 = confluence area of COP and .50 retracement
- 122.32-23 = confluence area of .618 ret and OP
- 121.95 = .382 ret
- 121.68 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 121.49 = .50 ret



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (40-55 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: February 16, 2012, 02:54:36 PMAUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 16, 2011

AUD/USD is now trading within impulse wave 5 of medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart) that started from 1.0525, this wave is part of wave A of a larger degree from 1.0145 (colored light green in the chart). Now the former wave has subwaves A, B, and C, with potential subwave C is still developing from 1.0628 (colored magenta in the chart). This wave also has its subwaves, they are A, and B (colored red in the chart) that is developing from 1.0775.

The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0844-1.0628.

Resistances:

- 1.0825 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0947 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0981 = OP

If the price keeps falling the targets below will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844, and expansions off 1.0844-1.0628-1.0775, 1.0775-1.0679-1.0737.

Supports:

- 1.0641 = OP
- 1.0582-77 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .382 retracement
- 1.0559 = OP
- 1.0495 = .50 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (current prices as well), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: February 16, 2012, 02:56:19 PMEUR/JPY Elliott wave count for February 16, 2012


Market Overview
The EUR/JPY pair was trading in a bullish mood for the last 10 days, yesterday in a European session after raising doubts about the Greek debt this major pair started falling under the 50 and 100 EMA support line and reached a new low few pips above the 200 EMA support around the 102.20 level.today in the early Asian session price continued a downward move to the 102.00 level slightly under 200 EMA support line. The EUR/JPY pair did not manage to hold this level and price started rising to 100 EMA Resistance, we are expecting to see price back to 102.00 before we can see price under the 101.50 level.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 101.41 (S2) 101.91 (S1) 102.22 (PP) 102.71 (R1) 103.21 (R2) 103.52 (R3) 104.01

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair finished 5 waves in the i wave at 101.91, and started a new 3 wave correction in ii wave.According to our wave rules and taking into consideration that wave ii will retrace 61.8% or 78.6% of wave i we can project our targets with Fibonacci retracement(103.47-101.91) to first take profit level at 102.87(61.8% of wave i) and second take profit at 103.14(78.6% of wave i).For stop loss we can use end of wave i at 101.91.

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the upward movement to go higher today. That is why Long position at levels 102.50 with Stop Loss at 101.91, Take Profit at 102.87 and Take Profit 2 at 103.14 are recommended

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[badman]

Fundamental Analysis, For February 17 / 2012


 

Exit a week in which little has been done in Europe to revive Greece and solve the problem of debt.

As in several months, taking meetings and summits, conferences, warnings and even threats. It has called on Greece to impose very harsh adjustment plans, which he did. But no sign of an agreement committing their future.

It's simple. In light of the public, no one can be exposed to the best deal for Europe is that Greece abandon the euro area. But it's the truth. Then look further complicate the situation in the country Hellene changing conditions that are necessary to send money to save their collapse.

Greece, who since joining the euro area had a policy on waste of resources and political patronage, through the support of whom the request and falsified statistics to enter it now appears as the only culprit in this situation.

But did all of Europe that, and so did the banks and rating agencies, whose task is to investigate and advise, and seems to have discovered too late that Greece was not perhaps the best destinations for investment.

So the intermediate output, which appeared in these days is to approve aid for Greece, but to delay implementation until the elections scheduled for april. Before, of course, you will receive 14.4 billion euros, payable on 20 in March. The worst solution, doing things by little, without conviction, and courage will deliver both partners: Europe to send money that you know will never recover, and Greece in the euro zone out of it just because it would mean a catastrophe worse the present.

Besides all that the euro's fall was arrested Thursday in the U.S. session, and began to catch up on par with other leading currencies.

Friday's meeting operating on the European stock markets higher, with moderate gains, with the Dow Jones index futures recovered their losses on Wednesday.

As for the other currencies, the pound was strengthened by a retail sales data in Britain is much higher than expected, while the yen continues its downward trend, with the U.S. economic recovery for investors from currency refuge.

Particularly in the United States is expected to publish the retail inflation index of 8:30 Eastern, which could show an increase of 0.3% in January. Also be known, issued by the Conference Board leading indicators indicator which would have a positive tone for the fourth consecutive month, highlights the progress of the world's largest economy.

   
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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GBP/USD Bullish Outlook, February 17, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






GBP/USD

The British pound - U.S. Dollar pair, yesterday broke its downtrend line short term due to rumors of a move by the ECB in an exchange of Greek bonds. Investors appear on guard and are awaiting further news and fundamental news, especially from Europe on the issue of Greek rescue plan.

On a technical level, the pair is trading right now at 1.5820, is backing its maximum yesterday, if the trend continues, we expect a reversal to the fractal 1.5700 and buy at this level with a medium term objective 1.60 the key psychological level.

Indicators of MCD, and range, show levels of resistance and overbought.

instaforex.com/sp/forex_analysis/50890/

 

   
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com






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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook, For February 17, 2012 (weekly Strategy)






AUD/USD

 

The Australian dollar - U.S. Dollar pair remains bullish trend line for the moment we expect to continue rising.
On the other hand, only a definitive break its line of short-term trend. and a close below this will be the beginning of a sequence bass.

We therefore recommend selling only if the pair breaks its trendline, targeting 1.0480 medium term and as our ultimate goal to 1.0280 dollars per Australian.

The breakpoint will be above the maximum monthly.

The MCD indicator shows overbought levels and depletion of upward force.

   
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: February 21, 2012, 09:15:38 AM

   
USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for February 20, 2012






General situation:
Despite the quite successful start, on February 20 the USD/CHF pair has lost positions gained and moved down to the lower border of Ichimoku Cloud, forming the “dead cross”. The current signal for BUY-deals is confirmed but weak as the Chinkou Span is located below the price chart and the price has failed to overcome the Ichimoku Cloud. Therefore, the first support level 0.9099 is considered as target for downside movement. Nevertheless, as long as the Ichimoku Cloud has not been overcome, it is recommended to refrain from entering the market. In case this level has been overcome, the second support level 0.8998, which is considered as new target for descending movement, will be available. The downward movement continues as long as the price is located below the Kijun-Sen (0.9215). While bearish trading it is recommended to set Stop Loss higher than Kijun-Sen. In case the price goes higher than this line, the signal for SELL-deals will weaken. Therefore, the further descending movement will be questioned. Chinkou Span remains lower than the price chart confirming the current signal for SELL-deals and indicating the bearish mood of the USD/CHF pair. Bollinger Bands shows the beginning of downside trend, lines are expanding and directed downwards. Therefore, it is recommended to consider short positions. MACD is directed downwards indicating the current descending movement and enabling short positions. Nevertheless, it is recommended to enter the market only when the signal for BUY-deals has been strengthened.

Trading recommendations:
As to CHF operations it is recommended to consider SELL-deals with first target seen at the 0.9099 level but only after the breakdown of the Ichimoku Cloud. When this level has been overcome, the next target for short positions will be seen at the 0.8998 level. Stop Loss is to be placed higher than 0.9215. In case this line goes downwards, Stop Loss can be placed after it. While opening the short positions MACD must indicate descending movement. With profit of 50-60 pips Stop Loss can be placed to zero area. Take Profit can be set higher than target levels.

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

 

   
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


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