InstaForex Wave Analysis

[badman]

Fundamental Analysis, January 05, 2011


The leading indexes of Asia's stock markets are recording the first index decline in eight days this morning. Australia's stock market recorded a descent of 0.6%, Tokyo's Nikkei dropped 0.25%, the Chinese Shanghai exchange dropped 0.35%, the Korean KRX dropped 0.2%, while the Hang Seng recorded a light 0.1% rise.

In the macroeconomic sector, the American Department of Commerce has reported yesterday that factory orders in the United States had risen in an unexpected manner in November, at the sharpest rate in the last eight month. The Department pointed out that this is another sign of the economic recovery in the United States. The protocol of the last Federal Reserve meeting published yesterday confirms that despite the recovery, the economy is still weak and requires monetary support.

Commodity prices took a sharp dive yesterday, with crude oil dropping 2.4% to as two-week low, below the level of 90 United States dollars per barrel of oil, while the price of gold dropped by 3.1% to 1,378 United States dollars per ounce of gold – the sharpest decline in the two months, this due to signs of economic recovery in the United States reducing the demand for commodities.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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CHF/JPY Signs of Reversing the Downward Trend January 05, 2011 (Daily Strategy)










CHF/JPY

After an impressive upwards movement that led the Swiss Frank – Japanese Yen pair to the 88.00 high, we can predict a reversal of the positive trend and move to a wave of downwards movement, especially due to the fact the pair has failed twice to breach the major resistance level at 88.00. That said, the daily graph on the pair shows that the 86.25 strong support level is closing in on the pair from below.

The two strong levels surrounding the pair have caused it to move in a shuffle, though we estimate that it is only a matter of time before the pair breaches the support level, beginning a new downwards trend. While the final goal for the expected downwards movement is positioned only at 82.30, the pair is expected to meet the secondary weekly support level around 85.15, which will serve as a test on its way down.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 03 to January 07, 2011

_____WEEKLY_______

Weekly - R3 = 1.0591

Weekly - R2 = 1.0423

Weekly - R1 = 1.0326

Weekly Pivot = 1.0158

Weekly - S1 = 1.0061

Weekly - S2 = 0.9893

Weekly - S3 = 0.9796





_____MONTHLY______

Monthly - R3 = 1.1192

Monthly - R2 = 1.0724

Monthly - R1 = 1.0476

Monthly Pivot = 1.0008

Monthly - S1 = 0.9760

Monthly - S2 = 0.9292

Monthly - S3 = 0.9044


 



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


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[insta_poster]

AUD/USD candlestick analysis for January 6, 2011

The AUD/USD currency pair is declining further from the 1.0255 level. As mentioned before, if the AUD/USD breaks through the support level at 0.9825, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537
Earlier on a daily chart the AUD/USD has formed the combination of candlesticks Bullish Engulfing which indicates the uprising movement, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed near the support level of 0.9537, where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound after a downside movement took place. This combination of candlesticks provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: January 06, 2011, 12:32:52 PMUSD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 6, 2011

The USD/JPY pair has successfully broken the resistance level 82.8 and the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.



Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: January 06, 2011, 12:40:10 PMUSD/CAD technical analysis for January 6, 2011

Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9750, 0.9700
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is declining again after a sharp rebound from 0.9891. At the moment the viewpoint to the pair is bearish.
Earlier the pair has broken through the 0.9980 support level. The breakout of this level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9750 as the next target.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0851 will confirm that the downtrend from 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the resistance level at 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.



Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: January 06, 2011, 02:14:35 PMGBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 6, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing subwave C (colored yellow in the chart) within impulse wave 5 (colored red) of the medium term uptrend. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 133.03-125.47 and expansions off 125.47-127.00-125.74 (waves 1-2), 125.74-128.61-127.37 (waves 3-4), 127.37-128.07-127.46 (subwaves A-B within wave 5)
Resistances:
- 129.25-29 = confluence area of .50 retracement and super expanded objective point (SXOP), already hit (!)
- 129.75 = SXOP
- 130.14-24 = confluence area of .618 retracement and objective point (OP)
If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the waves up from 127.37 and from 125.47 - these waves are not developed yet.


Overbought/Oversold
Althought the medium term trend is up the Detrended Oscillator has shown a clear divergence between the peaks of wave 3 and wave 5, the price has hit .50 retracement and SXOP at 129.29, so be ready for a reversal. Now it's preferable to use overbought readings in conjunction with Fib resistances to consider short positions. Resistance zone at 129.25-29 is the one to look for topping signals.


Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
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Post Merge: January 06, 2011, 02:16:35 PMGBP/USD candlestick analysis for January 6, 2011

On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD has failed again to break through the resistance level at 1.5650 to rebound further. The viewpoint on the pair is still bearish.
Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break the resistance level of 1.5900. Nevertheless, if the GBP/USD manages to close above the 1.5650 level, it will be recommended to close short positions since this will lead to advance to 1.5900.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.



Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[badman]

Fundamental Analysis, January 06, 2011


In the American macroeconomic sector, ISM reported yesterday that activity in the service industry climbed at the highest rate in over four and a half years. The procurement manager’s index for the service industry rose to a level of 57.1 points in December as opposed to 55 points in November. The rise was sharper than predicted by economists, who expected a level of 55.6 points.

Europe's stock markets have been trading yesterday on a mixed trend with tendencies for index declines due to concerns over an escalation in the Iberian peninsula’s debt crisis. London's stock exchange, unlike continental markets, rose by 0.5% and locked on the highest level since June 2008. The Frankfurt exchange dropped by 0.5%; the Paris stock exchange dropped 0.3%. Asian exchanges recorded mixed trends this morning as well, with Tokyo's Nikkei climbing by 1.4%, Hong Kong's stock exchange trading at a light drop, and Seoul's stock exchange declining by 0.6%.

Furthermore in the macroeconomic sector, two days before the publication of the United States labour market report for December, encouraging data has been published yesterday regarding the amount of new jobs in the American private sector. The human resources company ADP has announced that the amount of new jobs added in the U.S. private sector in December was the highest in a decade, three times larger than expected by economists. The number of jobs in the American private sector leaped up in December by 297 thousand jobs three times more than predicted by economists, who predicted a rise of only 100 thousand jobs.

Note that this Friday, the United States Bureau of Labour Statistics is expected to publish the December employment report. Economists predict that 150 thousand jobs have been added to the US labour market last month, unemployment declining to a level of 9.7%.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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GBP/USD Megaphone Pattern January 06, 2011 (Daily Strategy)










GBP/USD

The movement of the GBP/USD pair in the last few days had created a megaphone pattern, blocking off the price from both sides, and yet expanding. The obvious negative deviation that has been accompanying the pattern since its formation hints at a downwards breach of the pattern in the near future.

It is important to pay attention to the meaningful support level around 1.5385, which forms a combination between the Fibonacci support level and the 200-day moving average on the pair. Another breach of this level will serve as an important indication of continued downwards movement, towards the low support level of 1.5080 United States dollars for one British pound.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


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EUR/CHF Downwards Movement Janaury 06, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






 


EUR/CHF

The negative deviation on the MACD indicator supports a new wave of downwards movements, which is expected to drag the pair down back towards the previous lows around 1.2450. A downwards breach through the trend line where it meets the Fibonacci support line at 1.2635 will form a final confirmation for a continued downwards movement towards our exit goal at 1.2530 Swiss Francs for one Euro.

 

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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The GBP/USD wave analysis for January 6, 2011



 



During the previous day the GBP/USD pair has declined by 1.5 figures and stopped above the upper limit of the downward channel. Current wave situation is complicated by the fact that there are multiple options for future movement direction. At the same time, downside trend of the pound is likely to resume. If so, after December 31 the pair will probably form waves 1 and 2 of a new future downtrend in favor of the dollar.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
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The USD/CHF wave analysis for January 6, 2011






High volatility on the currency markets allowed the USD/CHF pair to climb more than two figures. At the same time, such dynamic growth formed a slightly prolonged internal 5-wave structure of the estimated wave a (1) that looks quite complete by now. If so, we can expect a correction movement from yesterday’s level 0.9680 in the direction of 0.9535 – 0.9500.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
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[insta_poster]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 7, 2011

AUD/USD is developing subwave C (colored yellow in the chart) within wave 5 of the medium term downtrend - colored orange red. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9833-1.0255, and expansions off 1.0255-1.0055-1.0105 (waves 1-2), 1.0105-0.9960-1.0021 (waves 3-4), 1.0021-0.9944-0.9992 (subwaves A-B within wave 5).
Supports:
- 0.9915 = objective point (OP), already hit
- 0.9905-0.9898 = confluence area of OP and .50 ret
- 0.9876-67 = confluence area of OP and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9813 = .618 ret
If the price reverses up the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0255 - this wave is not developed yet.


Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term trend is down, it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level to consider short positions. The oscillator is close to the zero level and overbought area is 15-20 pips away from the current level - 0.9940-45.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: January 07, 2011, 11:35:54 AMGBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 7, 2011

The GBP/JPY has developed 5 waves of the medium term uptrend - colored red in the chart. Current wave down is potential wave A of A-B-C cycle. The targets below the current level are Fibonacci retracements of 125.47-129.27 and expansions off 129.27-128.43-129.19.
Supports:
- 128.35 = objective point (OP)
- 127.83-82 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .382 retracement
- 127.37 = .50 ret
- 126.99-92 = confluence area of super expanded objective point and .618 retracement
If the price breaks above 129.27 to continue the uptrend the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 133.03-125.47 and expansions off 125.47-128.61-127.37.
Resistances:
- 129.25-31 = confluence area of .50 retracement and contracted objective point (COP), already hit (!)
- 130.14 = .618 retracement
- 130.51 = objective point (OP)


Overbought/Oversold
Although the medium term trend is up the Detrended Oscillator has shown a clear divergence between the peaks of wave 3 and wave 5, the price has hit .50 retracement, so be ready for a reversal. Now it's preferable to use overbought readings in conjunction with Fib resistances to consider short positions. Resistance zone at 129.25-31 is the one to look for topping signals.


Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: January 07, 2011, 11:42:22 AMGBP/USD candlestick analysis for January 7, 2011

On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD is still in the downtrend. The viewpoint on the pair is still bearish.
Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break the resistance level of 1.5900. Nevertheless, if the GBP/USD manages to close above the 1.5665 level, it will be recommended to close short positions since this will lead to advance to 1.5900.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: January 07, 2011, 11:50:38 AMUSD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 7, 2011

The USD/JPY pair is moving upwards after it has successfully broken the resistance level 82.8.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.



Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 07, 2011, 12:10:41 PMEUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)

This week the EUR/GBP currency pair has been trading on the downside after it could not break the support level at 0.8650. As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rollback took place.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.



Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
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[badman]

    
The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 7, 2011


4-hour timeframe



Overview:
The Euro has been demonstrating the sell signal with target level at 1.2899. The formed sell signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph and the price managed to fixate below the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, the first target for the downside movement is 1.2933 – the second support level. If this level is passed the next target will be the third support level at 1.2796. The downside movement continues while the price is below the Kijun-Sen(1.3255), if the price manages to fixate below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing downside movement, the lines are diverging and directed down, thus pointing to the correction against the current upside movement. The MACD is descending, indicating the current downside movement.

 

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with the target to 1.2933, and further to 1.2796. Stop Loss should be placed above 1.3200. Short positions should be cut manually in case the MACD reverses up.

In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

 

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

 

Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
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Post Merge: January 08, 2011, 02:02:38 AMFundamental Analysis, January 07, 2011


Europe's stock markets have locked on a mixed trend yesterday on the background of a negative opening on Wall Street. In England, the London Stock Exchange locked on a 0.4% decline, in France, the Paris exchange remained without change, while Germany's Frankfurt exchange climbed by 0.6% after the country's factory orders leaped up by a rate five times greater than that predicted in November.

 

Asia's stock markets have recorded light index rises this morning, with the Tokyo stock exchange climbing 0.1%, the Hong Kong stock exchange climbing 0.1% as well, the Seoul exchange ascending 0.2%, the Shanghai exchange rising by 1.2% and the Taiwan exchange dropping by 1.2%.

In the macroeconomic sphere, the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics announced yesterday that the amount of new unemployment claims in the United States grew last week by 18 thousand as compared to the previous week, adding up to 409 thousands, as predicted by analysts. Today the Bureau is expected to publish the employment report for December. It has been predicted that it will show 150 thousand jobs added to the United States labor market, and the rate of unemployment reduced to 9.7%.

The United States dollar is strengthening against most of the world's currencies, trading at a monthly high against the Euro, this due to estimates that the recovery of the United States labor market will boost demand for the currency. The dollar strengthened against the Euro by 1.3% to a level of 1.2956 United States dollars for one Euro. Against the British pound it rose 0.7% to a level of 1.5405 United States dollars for one British pound. The American currency is stable against the Japanese Yen, remaining around the level of 83.40 Japanese Yen for one United States dollar.

 

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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USD/CAD Expectation of a Rebound January 07, 2011 (Daily Strategy)









USD/CAD

Because of the market remaining under intense pressure, the pair U.S. dollar - Canadian dollar will probably look for soil settling around 0.9880 where it will be a trigger to buy.

A rebound around the weekly support line of 0.9880 paves the way back to an equilibrium level of 1.0000 and later even a resistance level around 1.0070.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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AUD/USD,Around The Trend Line Janaury 07, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





 



AUD/USD

The strengthening of the United States dollar in the last few days is expressed also in the currency pair considered the most bullish among the leading currencies, the Australian dollar - United States dollar pair.

A downwards breach of the trend level at its meeting point with an additional support line at 0.9910 will form a major technical signal for a continued movement to the South. In such a case, the negative momentum can be utilized with a sell deal timed to close only when the pair reach the support level around 0.9760 United States dollars for one Australian dollar.

 

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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The GBP/USD wave analysis for January 7, 2011



 



The GBP/USD currency pair is slowly declining further and probably forming the first waves of a more continuous 3rd wave of the current section of the whole downtrend having developed since December 31. If so, 1.5270 might be the target for this 3rd wave, which is confirmed by its inner wave dimension. At the same time, breakout of the 1.5345 level (December 28 low) might cause a continuous correction recession, but after the price reaches the above mentioned target (1.5270).

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
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[insta_poster]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 10, 2011

AUD/USD has finished wave 1.0255-0.9903 (wave A of medium term downtrend - colored red in the chart) and is now developing corrective wave B. The targets of the corrective upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9903, and expansions off 0.9903-0.9987-0.9917 (subwaves A-B within wave B of larger degree).

Resistances:

- 1.0001 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0037 = .382 retracement
- 1.0053 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0079 = .50 ret
- 1.0021 = .618 ret
- 1.0137 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)

If the price reverses and breaks below 0.9903 (top of wave A) the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9540-1.0255.

Supports:

- 0.9898 = .50 ret
- 0.9813 = .618 ret


Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that medium term trend has changed and now is up, it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The oscillator is below the zero level and oversold area is 10-20 pips away from the current level - 0.9945-35. This is the level to open long position in case a bottoming signal appears.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: January 10, 2011, 12:02:58 PMGBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 10, 2011

GBP/JPY is moving within subwave C (colored red in the chart) of wave C of medium term uptrend - colored magenta in the chart. Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 133.03-125.47 and expansions off 125.47-128.61-127.37, 127.37-129.27-128.43, 128.43-129.24-128.44.

Resistances:

- 129.60 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 129.75 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 130.14 = .618 retracement
- 130.33 = objective point (OP)
- 130.51-56 = confluence area of OP and super expanded objective point (SXOP)

However if the price turns down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 127.37-129.41.

Supports:

- 128.63 = .382 retracement
- 128.39 = .50 ret
- 128.15 = .618 ret


Overbought/Oversold

The medium term trend is up, however the price is movin up quite reluctantly, the uptrend will be confirmed if 129.41 is broken to the upside. Therefore now it's preferable to stand aside until the price breaks the flat to either side.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
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Post Merge: January 10, 2011, 12:09:49 PMEUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)

The EUR/GBP closed the previous week on the downside after it could not break the support level at 0.8650. As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rebound took place.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: January 10, 2011, 12:17:17 PMUSD/CAD technical analysis for January 10, 2011

Support levels: 0.9891, 0.9820, 0.9750
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is bouncing off after it failed to break the support level at 0.9891. At the moment the viewpoint to the pair is bearish.
Earlier the pair has broken through the 0.9980 support level. The breakout of this level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9750 as the next target.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0851 will confirm that the downtrend from 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the resistance level at 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.



Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: January 10, 2011, 12:44:24 PMUSD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 10, 2011

The USD/JPY pair is rolling back it has successfully broken the resistance level 82.8.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.



Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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[badman]

Fundamental Analysis, January 10, 2011


Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated in his testimony in the Senate Budget committee that signs of a sustainable recovery are continuing to strengthen. He added, however, that he is still concerned over the slow recovery of the labor market, and warned that the deflation risk. In summary, a moderate improvement in the rate economic recovery exists in 2011 as compared to 2010, according to the chairman.

In the macroeconomic scale, the United States Department of Labor has reported last Friday that 103 thousand new jobs have been added to the American labor market in December, with the rate of unemployment dropping to 9.4%, the lowest point since May 2009. Economist predictions were for a sharper rise of 150 thousand jobs, but a more moderate decline in the unemployment ratings, to a level of 9.7%.

Index declines have been recorded this morning in the Asian stock markets, led by the stocks of the export sector, this due to the United States employment report and data regarding China's trade balance. The Hong Kong stock exchange declined by 0.2%, the Shanghai stock exchange retreated by 0.4%, the Seoul exchange dropped 0.5%, the Singapore exchange dropped by 0.1%, the Sydney exchange climbed 0.2%, while the Tokyo stock exchange is closed today due to holidays.

 

Analysts estimate the gold is expected to reach a level of 1,800 United States dollars per ounce of gold in 2011. Since gold is currently trading at 1,370 United States dollars per ounce, this constitutes a climb of over 30%.

 

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010




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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 10, 2011


4-hour timeframe




Overview:
The Euro has been demonstrating the sell signal with target level at 1.2899. The formed sell signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph and the price managed to fixate below the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, the first target for the downside movement is 1.2813 – the first support level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second support level at 1.2645. The downside movement continues while the price is below the Kijun-Sen(1.3150), if the price manages to fixate below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing downside movement, the lines are diverging and directed down. The MACD is descending, indicating the current downside movement.

 

 

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with the target to 1.2813, and further to 1.2645. Stop Loss should be placed above 1.3150. Short positions should be cut manually in case the MACD reverses up.

In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

 

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

 

Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com







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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 10 to January 14, 2011



_____WEEKLY_______

Weekly - R3 = 1.3790

Weekly - R2 = 1.3611

Weekly - R1 = 1.3257

Weekly Pivot = 1.3078

Weekly - S1 = 1.2724

Weekly - S2 = 1.2545

Weekly - S3 = 1.2191

 



_____MONTHLY______

Monthly - R3 = 1.4111

Monthly - R2 = 1.3804

Monthly - R1 = 1.3584

Monthly Pivot = 1.3277

Monthly - S1 = 1.3057

Monthly - S2 = 1.2750

Monthly - S3 = 1.2530






Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 10 to January 14, 2011


 

_____WEEKLY______

Weekly - R3 = 1.5906

Weekly - R2 = 1.5778

Weekly - R1 = 1.5661

Weekly Pivot = 1.5533

Weekly - S1 = 1.5416

Weekly - S2 = 1.5288

Weekly - S3 = 1.5171






_____MONTHLY______

Monthly - R3 = 1.6451

Monthly - R2 = 1.6180

Monthly - R1 = 1.5885

Monthly Pivot = 1.5614

Monthly - S1 = 1.5319

Monthly - S2 = 1.5048

Monthly - S3 = 1.4753







Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 10 to January 14, 2011




_____WEEKLY_______

Weekly - R3 = 1.0453

Weekly - R2 = 1.0332

Weekly - R1 = 1.0143

Weekly Pivot = 1.0022

Weekly - S1 = 0.9833

Weekly - S2 = 0.9712

Weekly - S3 = 0.9523





_____MONTHLY______

Monthly - R3 = 1.1192

Monthly - R2 = 1.0724

Monthly - R1 = 1.0476

Monthly Pivot = 1.0008

Monthly - S1 = 0.9760

Monthly - S2 = 0.9292

Monthly - S3 = 0.9044

 






Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010



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[insta_poster]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 11, 2011

The GBP/JPY has finished wave A of daily degrree 125.47-129.41 - colored royal blue in the chart - and now is developing corrective wave B. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 125.47-129.41, 127.37-129.41.
Supports:
- 128.15 = .618 retracement
- 127.90 = .382 ret
- 127.44 = .50 ret
- 126.98 = .618 ret
If the price breaks above 129.41 and starts developing wave C its targets will be Fibonacci retracements of 133.03-125.47 and expansions off 125.47-129.41-128.29.
Resistances:
- 130.14 = .618 retracement
- 130.72 = contracted objective point (COP)

Overbought/Oversold
Although the wave down is considered corrective we need confirmation that the trend is really up. Long positions can only be considered when the price breaks above 129.41. Until that stand aside.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: January 11, 2011, 11:12:52 AMAUD/USD candlestick analysis for January 11, 2011

The AUD/USD currency pair is testing the support level at 0.9825. As mentioned before, if the AUD/USD breaks through this level, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537.
Earlier on a daily chart the AUD/USD has formed the combination of candlesticks Bullish Engulfing which indicates the uprising movement, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed near the support level of 0.9537, where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound after a downside movement took place. This combination of candlesticks provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 11, 2011, 11:22:37 AMGBP/USD candlestick analysis for January 11, 2011

On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD is still trading in the range between 1.5345 and 1.5665. Nevertheless, the viewpoint on the pair is still bearish as the downtrend remains.
Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break the resistance level of 1.5900. Nevertheless, if the GBP/USD manages to close above the 1.5665 level, it will be recommended to close short positions since this will lead to advance to 1.5900.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: January 11, 2011, 11:32:04 AMUSD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 11, 2011

The USD/JPY pair is rolling back after it has successfully broken the resistance level 82.85. However, the viewpoint at the pair is still bullish and the upside movement is expected to resume in the nearest future.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 11, 2011, 11:54:58 AMUSD/CAD technical analysis for January 11, 2011

Support levels: 0.9891, 0.9820, 0.9750
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is consolidating after a drop to the support level at 0.9891. The viewpoint to the pair is bearish. If this level is broken, the extension of the downtrend should be expected.
Earlier the pair has broken through the 0.9980 support level. The breakout of this level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9750 as the next target.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0851 will confirm that the downtrend from 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the resistance level at 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.



Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com


Post Merge: January 12, 2011, 11:00:27 AMAUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 12, 2011

AUD/USD is developing corrective subwave 4 (colored orange red in the chart) within impulse wave C of the medium term downtrend (colored red in the chart). The targets of the corrective upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9668-0.9803 (wave 3).
Resistances:
- 0.9866 = .382 retracement, already hit (!)
- 0.9886 = .50 ret
- 0.9905 = .618 ret
If the price reverses down and continues the downtrend the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9540-1.0255, and expansions off 1.0255-0.9903-0.9987, 0.9987-0.9878-0.9968.
Supports:
- 0.9813 = .618 retracement is hit (!)
- 0.9792 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9769 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9709 = .764 ret
- 0.9683 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term trend is down, it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level to consider short positions. The oscillator is now above the zero and the overbought area is 20-30 pips away (0.9880-90) which roughly corresponds to .50 retracement - 0.9886.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: January 12, 2011, 11:06:04 AMAUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 12, 2011

AUD/USD is developing corrective subwave 4 (colored orange red in the chart) within impulse wave C of the medium term downtrend (colored red in the chart). The targets of the corrective upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9668-0.9803 (wave 3).
Resistances:
- 0.9866 = .382 retracement, already hit (!)
- 0.9886 = .50 ret
- 0.9905 = .618 ret
If the price reverses down and continues the downtrend the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9540-1.0255, and expansions off 1.0255-0.9903-0.9987, 0.9987-0.9878-0.9968.
Supports:
- 0.9813 = .618 retracement is hit (!)
- 0.9792 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9769 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9709 = .764 ret
- 0.9683 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term trend is down, it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level to consider short positions. The oscillator is now above the zero and the overbought area is 20-30 pips away (0.9880-90) which roughly corresponds to .50 retracement - 0.9886.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 12, 2011, 11:21:03 AMUSD/CAD technical analysis for January 12, 2011

Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is declining further after it successfully broke the support level at 0.9891. The viewpoint to the pair is bearish. Now the extension of the downside movement with target at 0.9711 should be expected.
Earlier the pair has broken through the 0.9980 support level. The breakout of this level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9711 as the next target.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0851 will confirm that the downtrend from 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the resistance level at 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 12, 2011, 11:30:22 AMGBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 12, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing corrective subwave 4 (colored orange red in the chart) within impulse daily wave C - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 133.03-125.47 and expansions off 125.47-129.41-128.29, 128.29-129.49-128.98.
Resistances:
- 130.72 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 130.92 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 131.25 = .764 retracement
However if the price keeps moving down its nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 128.29-130.37.
Supports:
- 129.58 = .382 retracement
- 129.33 = .50 ret
- 129.08 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to take oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator to consider long positions. The oscillator is now below the zero level and the oversold area is within 10-20 pips - 129.85-75, which is a good moment to consider longs.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: January 12, 2011, 11:41:21 AMGBP/USD candlestick analysis for January 12, 2011

On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD is testing the resistance level near 1.5665. If it is broken, short positions should be closed as it means the downtrend is broken.
Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break the resistance level of 1.5900. Nevertheless, if the GBP/USD manages to close above the 1.5665 level, it will be recommended to close short positions since this will lead to advance to 1.5900.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 12, 2011, 11:47:19 AMUSD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 12, 2011

The USD/JPY pair is consolidating after it has successfully broken the resistance level 82.85. However, the viewpoint at the pair is still bullish and the upside movement is expected to resume in the nearest future.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[badman]

Fundamental Analysis, January 11, 2011


Asia's stock markets have recorded moderate index rises his morning, with China's Shanghai index ascending by 0.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng trading at a 1% rise, South Korea's KRX strengthening by 0.1%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 continuing to trade in negative territory, dropping by 0.3% of its value.

Japan's Minister of Finance, Yoshihiko Noda, has announced yesterday that his government will join China in supporting Europe by purchasing the debt of problematic nations like Portugal, Spain, and Italy. Japan, he said, will purchase about 20% of the Special European Fund that has been founded to rescue nations from the EU's debt crisis.

The President of Portugal, Anibal Cavaco Silva, denied reports that the country is under pressure to accept international aid to avoid the spreading of its debt crisis, due to rumors that Germany and France trying to pressure the country into accepting an aid package of 50-100 billion Euro. The President added that the country does not intend to ask the IMF for aid, nor is it under any pressure to accept such aid.

On the background of these reports, the European stock markets have locked on a negative trend for the second day running, erasing about half the gains recorded last week yesterday. As such, the London stock exchange locked at a decline of 0.5%, the Frankfurt exchange retreated by 1.3%, the Paris exchange declined by 1.7%, whereas the Lisbon exchange dropped by 2.7% due to the strengthening of the estimates that Portugal will be forced to ask for a European aid package.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010




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EUR/USD,Upwards Movement, January 11, 2011 (Daily Strategy)







EUR/USD

Investor concerns regarding the economic state of Portugal have burdened the European currency, which recorded sharp declines in the last five days of trading, both against the dollar in particular and other leading currencies in general. The Euro – United States dollar pair dived about 500 points from the peak levels of 1.3400, which it visited recently, to the low levels of 1.2900, where it is currently trading.

 

An upwards breach expected to pave the way back to a level of 1.3000, and later on even to a resistance level around 1.3380. The stop loss movement can be placed in a relative proximity, slightly under the last local low around 1.2850. We must point to the positive deviation on the MACD indicator, which supports positive predictions on the pair.

 

 

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


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EUR/JPY,Opportunities to Buy Janaury 11, 2011 (Daily Strategy)



 



Euro – Japanese Yen

The technical angle allows us to identify an attractive buy opportunity;The fact that the pair has failed to breach the support level at 107 hints that it is possible that the Euro – Japanese Yen pair had bottomed out in expectation of a new wave of upwards movement. It is also important to point out the positive technical deviation on the MACD indicator, combined with the appearance of the “Bat” bullish reversal pattern. These allow for entry into a buy deal with an exit goal near the meaningful resistance level of 109.70 Japanese Yen for one Euro.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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The GBP/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 11, 2011


 
4-hour timeframe






Overview:
The sell signal has cancelled, instead a buy signal with target level at 1.5722 has formed. However, the movement has resembled a sideways one for several weeks. The formed sell signal is strong and not confirmed since the Chinkou Span has not yet fixated above the price graph and the price managed to fixate above the Ishimoku cloud. In case the current signal is confirmed, i.e. the Chinkou Span fixates above the graph, the first target for the upside movement is 1.5661 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.5778. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.5515). The Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph, which does not confirm the current buy signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show sideways movement, the lines are not diverging and directed sideways. The MACD is ascending, indicating the current upside movement.

 

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to wait until the Chinkou Span fixates above the price graph, and then trade up with the target to 1.5661. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.5515. For successful trading it is also recommended to wait until the Bollinger Bands start diverging.

In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

 

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

 

Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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The GBP/USD wave analysis for January 11, 2011.








The GBP/USD situation is developing according to the corrective scenario, that implies forming a wave structure of a horizontal triangle. At the same time, its wave is probably developing further. If so, it is likely that levels near the 57 figure might cause another decline of the pound price in the range of the future d wave of such triangle.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
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Post Merge: January 13, 2011, 04:36:56 AMFundamental Analysis, January 12, 2011


The price of oil locked yesterday at a 2.1% climbed over a level of 91 United States dollars for one barrel, oil's highest price level in the last week, this was due to concerns of reduction in oil production due to the clothing of the Alaska oil pipe and an oil field in the North Sea.

The Japanese government announced that it would purchase European obligations in order to aid the region with dealing with its debt crisis. The Asian stock markets responded positively to the announcement, recording index rises. The Tokyo stock exchange rose by 0.2%, the Seoul stock exchange rose by 0.2%, while Hong Kong's stock exchange rose by about 0.8%.

Europe's stock markets set a 28-month high yesterday, on the background of Japan's announcement. The country has joined China in its attempt to aid Europe in braking the continent's debt crisis. By the end of the trading day, the London exchange climbed by 1%, the Frankfurt stock exchange climbed 1.2%, while the Paris exchange climbed by 1.6%.

In the American macroeconomic sphere, the United States Department of labor announced that the amount of available jobs in the United States declined in November after it rose to the highest level in two years in the month previous, a sign that the recovery in America's job market may be slower and longer than expected. The number of available jobs in the United States declined by 80 thousand in November, to a total of 3.25 million, a 2.4% decline as compared to October's 3.3 million. The stream of economic publications will continue throughout the week, and will include retail sales data, the consumer price index and the industrial production index, the manufacturer price index, trade balance etc.

 

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010



More analysis - at instaforex.com



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The GBP/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 12, 2011



4-hour timeframe



Overview:
The sell signal has cancelled, instead a buy signal with target level at 1.5722 has formed. However, the movement has resembled a sideways one for several weeks. The formed sell signal is strong and not confirmed since the Chinkou Span has not yet fixated above the price graph and the price managed to fixate above the Ishimoku cloud. In case the current signal is confirmed, i.e. the Chinkou Span fixates above the graph, the first target for the upside movement is 1.5661 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.5778. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.5530). The Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph, which does not confirm the current buy signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show sideways movement, the lines are not diverging and directed sideways. The MACD is ascending, indicating the current upside movement.

 

 

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.5661, and further to 1.5778. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.5530. If the MACD reverses down, long positions should be cut manually.

In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

 

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

 

Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com







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USD/JPY wave analysis for January 12, 2011



 



The USD/JPY currency pair did not make another attempt to overcome the correction level 50.5% and resumed growth, supposedly starting to form the 5th wave of the whole local uptrend, developing since December 31. Thus, at the moment its 4th wave looks complete. At the same time estimated target for this 5th, located near 84.30 is still in force.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010



More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD,Our Overall Outlook Remains Bullish, Janaury 12, 2011 (Daily Strategy)

 






EUR/USD

Since the pair still hasn't succeeded in breaching the minor resistance at 1.3040, there exists a chance for a brief wave of downwards movements towards the 1.2900 level. In such a case, there will be an opportunity to collect the Euro – United States dollar pair at an improved price before the upwards trend enters high gear. Further, a breach of the resistance levels at 1.3040 and then at 1.3100 will strengthen and confirm the pair's direction, expected to take it at the very least to the resistance level of 1.3370 United States dollars for one Euro.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 13, 2011

The GBP/JPY is now moving within subwave C (colored red in the chart) of daily impulse wave C - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 133.03-125.47 and expansions off 125.47-129.41-128.29, 128.29-130.37-129.59.
Resistances:
- 131.25 = .764 retracement
- 131.67 = objective point (OP)
- 132.23 = OP
If the price keeps retracing the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 128.59-131.13.
Supports:
- 130.54 = .382 retracement
- 130.36 = .50 ret
- 130.18 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to take oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator to consider long positions. The oscillator is now at the zero level and the oversold area is within 15-20 pips which roughly corresponds to .382 retracement (130.54).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
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Post Merge: January 13, 2011, 11:44:40 AMAUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 13, 2011

The AUD/USD has finished wave 1.0255-0.9803 (wave A of medium term downtrend - colored magenta in the chart) and now is developing corrective wave B which on smaller scale consists of subwaves A and B (colored orange red in the chart), the latter is still developing. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9803-0.9971.
Supports:
- 0.9907 = .382 retracement
- 0.9887 = .50 ret
- 0.9867 = .618 ret
- 0.9843 = .764 ret
If the wave up continues with the break of 0.9971 the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9803.
Resistances:
- 0.9976 = .382 ret
- 1.0029 = .50 ret
- 1.0082 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term wave is up, it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The oscillator is now at the zero and the oversold area is 25-35 pips away (0.9920-10) which roughly corresponds to .382 retracement - 0.9907.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
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Post Merge: January 13, 2011, 11:51:03 AMUSD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 13, 2011

The USD/JPY pair is consolidating after it has successfully broken the resistance level 82.85. However, the viewpoint at the pair is still bullish and the upside movement is expected to resume in the nearest future.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.


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Post Merge: January 13, 2011, 11:56:46 AMUSD/CAD technical analysis for January 13, 2011

Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is declining further after it successfully broke the support level at 0.9891. This has provided certain interest to selling and quite significant interest to purchase from corporate market participants.
The viewpoint to the pair is bearish. Now the extension of the downside movement with target at 0.9711 should be expected.
Earlier the pair has broken through the 0.9980 support level. The breakout of this level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9711 as the next target.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0851 will confirm that the downtrend from 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the resistance level at 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
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[dada-as]

Hi, welcome to forum, i m really excited to see your analyzes in future. Me my self are doing some at www.fibonaccifx.com I m only predicting euro/dollar.

Will monitor this topic to see your future analyze.

[badman]

Fundamental Analysis, January 13, 2011


According to the recent report on the state of the U.S. Economy, the so-called ‘Beige book', the American labor market is beginning to show signs of recovery. The details shown in the report make it evident that six regions of the Fed, including Atlanta and Chicago, have reported moderate economic growth, while four regions, including New York and Boston, had pointed to improving conditions.

In Europe, Portugal's government has successfully raised 1.25 billion Euros (1.6 billion dollars) by government obligations, which has been seen as a test of the country's ability to win investor trust and raise capital on the financial markets.

Portugal's successful issue has come after, in the last two weeks, reports have spread that the Eurozone countries, including France and Germany, had pressured Portugal to accept international aid in an attempt to break the spreading of the debt crisis to the other European countries. That said, the European countries are still evaluating a possible aid package for Portugal including monetary assistance to the sum of 60 billion Euros in low-interest loans, this to calm the financial crisis threatening the Eurozone.

Due to the successful Portuguese issue of obligations, as well as reports regarding an increase in the EU bailout fund, as well as agreement over and international aid package for Portugal, Europe's stock markets responded positively, locking at sharp index rises, with London's stock exchange climbing by about 0.6%, Frankfurt’s stock exchange climbing by 1.8%, the Paris stock exchange climbing by 2.2%, the Lisbon exchange ascending by 2.5%, the Milano exchange climbing 3.8%, and the Madrid stock exchange leaping up by 5.4%.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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The EUR/USD wave analysis for January 13, 2011






The EUR/USD currency pair has extended its upward movement in the range of the estimated correction. At the same time, yesterday’s dynamic movement allowed the price to advance more than 1.5 figures from the opening. However, it should be mentioned that if the corrective scenario applies, targets for the wave of the estimated 2nd (or b) can be located near 1.3155 and 1.3220 (correction levels 50.0% and 61.8% respectively). Moreover, the formed MACD divergence allowing a more continuous development of the current upward section should be highlighted.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
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NZD/USD,Corrective Movement., Janaury 13, 2011 (Daily Strategy)



 



NZD/USD

An upwards breach of the shuffle pattern will only occur after the pair closes over the resistance level at 0.7656. In such a case, the pair will have a high potential for continued upwards movement, towards the 0.7870 resistance level.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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The GBP/USD wave analysis for January 13, 2011

 






During yesterday’s trading the GBP/USD pair climbed more than 1.5 figures within developing estimated wave of the whole corrective structure having formed since December 28. It is worth mentioning that yesterday’s dynamic growth has probably cancelled the scenario implying the formation of a horizontal triangle. If so, possible targets for the current wave might be located near 1.5810 and 1.5920.

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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 13, 2011




4-hour timeframe



Overview:
The euro has completed the downward movement; a new buy signal with target level at 1,3298 has formed. The formed signal is weak and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price did not manage to fixate above the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the downside movement is 1.3257 – the first resistance level, but it is recommended to trade up only after the price fixates above the Ishimoku cloud. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.3611. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3010), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the beginning of the upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is ascending, indicating the current upside movement.
 

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3257, and further to 1.3611. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3010. Enter the market only after the price fixates above the Ishimoku cloud.

 

In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

 

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
 


 

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Post Merge: January 15, 2011, 10:47:17 AMFundamental Analysis, January 14, 2011


 The ECB had decided to leave the interest rate in the Eurozone unchanged, at a level of 0.5%. The decision was in accordance with the analysts' predictions and is aimed to allow the recovery of the continent's economy from the crisis that had been affecting it. Earlier on yesterday, the British Central bank had decided to leave the interest rate in Britain unchanged as well, at a level of 1.0%. This decision had also been in accordance with the predictions of economists, who forecast that the interest rate in Britain would remain unchanged.

In the American macroeconomic arena, last week the number of persons seeking employment rose to 445 thousand, as opposed to economists’ predictions that the number of the new unemployed in the United States would decline from 409 thousand to 405 thousand.

On the other hand, the manufacturer price index for December rose surprisingly to 1.1%, completing a 4.1% rise for 2010. The analysts had predicted a more moderate increase of 0.9%. Furthermore, the United States trade deficit for November remained unchanged, at a total of about 38.3 billion United States dollars, lower than analysts' prediction of a growth of 41 billion United States dollars.

In the global currency market, the Euro has performed a 1.7% leap today against the United States dollar, reaching a 1.3380 level. The Euro's leap has been supported by successful bond issues by European countries and signals from the ECB regarding inflationary pressures that might lead to a rise in the interest rate. The ECB further announced that there exist signs of short-term inflationary pressures, mostly brought about by energy prices.

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AUD/USD Around the Principal Trend Line , Janaury 14, 2011 (Daily Strategy)








AUD/USD

A look on the pair's technical picture shows that the downwards movement has been braked by the strong support of the main trend line on the pair, which has accompanied it since the beginning of 2010.

That said, we estimate that there is a serious likelihood that the pair will still breach the trend line and complete the wave of downwards movement all the way down to the 0.9700 support level and possibly even further, towards the meaningful low around 0.9525. A descent that deep would create an attractive opportunity for a buy on the pair on low prices in order to return with a new wave of upwards movements towards the resistance and equilibrium level of 1.0000 United States dollars for one Australian dollar.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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[insta_poster]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 17, 2011

The GBP/JPY is developing subwave C (colored magenta in the chart) of daily impulse wave C - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-129.41-128.29, 128.29-131.40-130.43.
Resistances:
- 132.23 = objective point (OP)
- 132.35 = contracted objective point (COP)
If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.43-131.82, 128.29-131.82.
Supports:
- 131.13 = .50 retracement
- 130.96 = .618 ret
- 130.47 = .382 ret
- 130.06 = .50 ret
- 129.64 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to take oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator to consider long positions. The oscillator is now moving up from below the zero level and from .382 retracement 131.29. Therefore it's better to wait until the price retraces at least to 131.29 support to open long positions.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
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Post Merge: January 17, 2011, 11:04:17 AMAUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 17, 2011

The AUD/USD is developing subwave B (colored red in the chart) within corrective wave B of medium term downtrend - colored magenta in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9803-1.0019, 0.9540-1.0255, and expansions off 1.0255-0.9803-1.0019, 1.0019-0.9950-0.9986, 0.9986-0.9855-0.9919.
Supports:
- 0.9854 = .764 retracement, the price reversed just within 1 pip
- 0.9838 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9805 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
If the price breaks below 0.9803 then wave 0.9803-1.0019 will be considered as finished and the targets of the downmove (wave C) will be the following:
- 0.9788 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9740 = COP
- 0.9709-07 = confluence area of .764 retracement and expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price breaks above 0.9919, the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0019-0.9855, 1.0255-0.9803.
Resistances:
- 0.9937 = .50 retracement
- 0.9956 = .618 ret
- 1.0029 = .50 ret
- 1.0082 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term trend is down, it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level to consider short positions. The oscillator is now below the zero level and going into the oversold area, which means that the market is a bit overextended to the downside and not suitable for shorts right now. Therefore wait until the oscillator crosses above the zero - which is 15-20 pips away, and only then start considering short positions.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
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[badman]

Fundamental Analysis, January 17, 2011


 Descents have been recorded this morning in Asia due to steps taken this weekend by China and Singapore in order to chill off the local markets, as well as renewed concerns over the European debt crisis, causing the Hong Kong stock exchange to weaken by 0.3% and the Shanghai exchange to take a 2.1% dive after the Chinese central bank raised bank capital requirements. The Singapore stock exchange droped 0.2%, while the Japanese Nikkei is trading unchanged.

In the American macroeconomic sphere, the Consumer Price index climbed by 0.5% in December, the highest monthly climb since June 2009, due to a climb in energy prices. The core price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, climbed by 0.1%. The rises in the CPI and core price index were in accordance with predictions. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke stated on this matter that he expects that inflation remains moderate, while the risk of deflation hitting the United States economy persists.

Europe's chief statistics bureau announced that inflation in Germany – the largest economy in Europe – rose by 1.9% in December as opposed to November's 1.6%. This is the quickest climb since October 2008. That said, the concerns over the European debt crisis continue to burden the markets. The Euro traded this morning at a 0.5% decline against the United States dollar, to a rate of 1.3330 United States dollars for one Euro. Today the European finance ministers are expected to meet and discuss dealing with the crisis. Last Friday Greece lost its last investment rating, having been downgraded by one level by the Fitch ratings agency, and reaching the level of BB+, considered a 'junk bond' level.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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EUR/USD Corrective Movement, Janaury 17, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)








EUR/USD

The 1.3380 resistance level is a real test for the Euro – United States dollar pair on its way towards the previous highs around 1.4000. For now, the pair has entered an especially narrow shuffle, which may end in an upwards breach, first towards near resistance level of 1.3620, and later up to the resistance level and exit goal of 1.3970. A close above the 1.3390 level will form a buy trigger.

The possibility for worsening of the European debt crisis exists. Such development would lead to a new wave of downwards movement, expected to bring the Euro – United States dollar pair back towards the 1.3060 support level. This level is low enough for collecting the pair and entering a buy position, while a stop loss order may be placed at 1.2800 United States dollars for one Euro.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 17-January 21, 2011


 _____WEEKLY______
Weekly - R3 = 1.6424
Weekly - R2 = 1.6155
Weekly - R1 = 1.6010
Weekly Pivot = 1.5741
Weekly - S1 = 1.5596
Weekly - S2 = 1.5327
Weekly - S3 = 1.5182

 




_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.6451
Monthly - R2 = 1.6180
Monthly - R1 = 1.5885
Monthly Pivot = 1.5614
Monthly - S1 = 1.5319
Monthly - S2 = 1.5048
Monthly - S3 = 1.4753





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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 17-January 21, 2011

 

_____WEEKLY_______
Weekly - R3 = 1.4193
Weekly - R2 = 1.3824
Weekly - R1 = 1.3606
Weekly Pivot = 1.3237
Weekly - S1 = 1.3019
Weekly - S2 = 1.2650
Weekly - S3 = 1.2432






_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.4111
Monthly - R2 = 1.3804
Monthly - R1 = 1.3584
Monthly Pivot = 1.3277
Monthly - S1 = 1.3057
Monthly - S2 = 1.2750
Monthly - S3 = 1.2530





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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USD/CHF wave analysis for January 17, 2011








During Friday the USD/CHF currency pair was trading in a quite narrow price range. At the same time, the Thursday’s low was broken, which can indicate complicating wave situation in the range of the wave of the whole corrective movement developed since January 11. It is worth mentioning that if the price resumes downside movement it can reach 0.9565 – 0.9540 corresponding with estimated correction level 50.0%.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
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[insta_poster]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 18, 2011

The AUD/USD is movign within corrective subwave B (colored orange red in the chart) of potential impulse wave C (colored red in the chart) of medium term uptrend. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9803 and expansions off 0.9803-1.0019-0.9855, 0.9855-0.9967-0.9897.
Resistances:
- 1.0009 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0029 = .50 retracement
- 1.0071-78-82 = confluence area - OP, expanded objective point (XOP), .618 retracement
if the price resumes the downtrend the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0255-0.9803-1.0019, 1.0019-0.9855-0.9967.
Supports:
- 0.9866 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9803 = OP
- 0.9740 = COP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the price is moving in a flat and wave C of medium term uptrend is not yet confirmed, both the readings of the Detrended Oscillator can be used to take long and short positions. At this moment the price is in the overbought area, but it's better to combine this reading with the nearest Fib resistance, which is 0.9966 - this is the level to watch for topping signals.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
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Post Merge: January 18, 2011, 12:10:23 PMGBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 18, 2011

The GBP/JPY has stalled in wave C of medium term uptrend (colored magenta in the chart). Now corrective subwave B is developing (colored red). Still, the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-129.41-128.29, 128.29-131.40-130.43, 130.43-131.82-130.96.
Resistances:
- 131.82 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.23 = objective point (OP)
- 132.35 = confluence area of COP and OP
- 133.21 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 133.54 = OP
If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.43-131.82, 128.29-131.82.
Supports:
- 130.96 = .618 ret, hit precisely (!)
- 130.47 = .382 ret
- 130.06 = .50 ret
- 129.64 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to take oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator to consider long positions. The oscillator is now above the zero level, therefore the current price is not suitable for long positions. Now it's better to wait until the price retraces in the oversold area (15 pips away) to consider long positions.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
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Post Merge: January 18, 2011, 12:16:38 PMEUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)

This week the EUR/GBP pair continued trading down after the rollback. Earlier the EUR/GBP dropped after it could not break the support level at 0.8650.
As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rebound took place.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.


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Post Merge: January 18, 2011, 12:57:24 PMUSD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 18, 2011

The USD/JPY pair is testing the support level near 82.30-82.40. Another attempt was unsuccessful. At the moment the short-term viewpoint at the pair is still bullish.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: January 18, 2011, 12:58:43 PMEUR/USD candlestick analysis for January 18, 2011

Earlier on a 4-hour graph the EUR/USD currency pair formed the Shooting Star candlestick, which is a downside signal. At the moment the pair is rolling back after a sharp downfall. However, the viewpoint to the pair is still bearish.
This candlestick was formed amid sharp rollback of the 1.2869 level. However, the bears started increasing their influence near the resistance level 1.3497 (December 2010 high) and a rebound took place.
Breakout of the Fibonacci level 23.6 will prove this viewpoint. In this case downside movement to the support level 1.3080, where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located, should be expected.
On the other hand, if the resistance level 1.3497 is broken, short positions should be closed as it will lead to an increase up to 1.3786.



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