InstaForex Wave Analysis

[Alexandra]

Dear forum members,
Me and my colleagues are going to provide you with the latest  analysis reviews. Please, follow our analysis and you will be informed about Forex. Hope, our reviews will help you to increase the efficiency of your trading. 

The source is instaforex.com 

[badman]

_____MONTHLY______

Monthly - R3 = 1.5167

Monthly - R2 = 1.4724

Monthly - R1 = 1.3854

Monthly Pivot = 1.3411

Monthly - S1 = 1.2541

Monthly - S2 = 1.2098

Monthly - S3 = 1.1228

_____WEEKLY_______

Weekly - R3 = 1.3777

Weekly - R2 = 1.3637

Weekly - R1 = 1.3412

Weekly Pivot = 1.3272

Weekly - S1 = 1.3047

Weekly - S2 = 1.2907

Weekly - S3 = 1.2682




Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

[insta_poster]

Support levels: 1.0000, 0.9980, 0.9930
Resistance levels: 1.0167, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD has successfully broken the upper limit of the established range to make a pullback further. Earlier the USD/CAD rebounded from the support level of 1.0000, which is also a bottom of a wide trading range.
The uprising movement is supported by the fact that on a 4-hour chart the MACD divergence appeared. As it was mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks through the level of 1.0290, then this will lead to uprising movement with a target to 1.0380. The breakthrough of 1.0380 will mean that a pullback from 1.0680 ended and further advance should be expected. Moreover, a breakout of 1.0380 will indicate the formation of “Triple Bottom”.
Nonetheless, a breakthrough of support level of 0.9980-1.0000 will allow the pair to reach the 0.9930 level.
In a midterm, the currency pair will probably remain within the bounds of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. In case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0680 will confirm the end of consolidation and that the downtrend from 1.3063 is breached. In this case it is forecasted that the USD/CAD will move up to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: December 21, 2010, 01:11:32 PMCopper review for 21/12/2010

Copper futures closed on the upside on Monday amid the data that Chilean Dona Ines de Collahuasi Company stopped metal distribution.
By the end of deals on COMEX the March prices were up by 4.7 cents or by 1.1% to 4.2060 dollar/pound.
The main reason of the increase in metal prices on Monday was the information about one of the major copper mining companies in Chili Dona Ines de Collahuasi suspending distribution indefinitely. On Monday in the Company’s port an accident entailing 3 deaths took place.
Besides, the strike at the Dona Ines de Collahuasi mine has been lasting for 33 days already. But until Monday the company has managed to perform the contracts.
Copper futures refreshed multi-month highs amid growing demand for “red metal” and suspended distribution in Chili.
Moreover, copper prices advanced because of the enhancing prospects of economic growth in the US and China. Copper is used extensively in industry, therefore any signs of economic growth indicate improving demand for meta


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: December 21, 2010, 02:10:39 PMOn a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD is testing the support level of 1.5500. Earlier the currency pair dropped sharply after it after it failed to break out the resistance level of 1.5900. In case the support level of 1.5500 is broken through the downside movement with the target to 1.5300 is expected.
The viewpoint is still bearish, since earlier the pair has formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing, which indicates the downside movement, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break out the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.



Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: December 21, 2010, 02:36:36 PMOn Monday the US trading was carried out within narrow ranges, furthermore the strong decline in American Express quotes dragged down the Dow Jones Industrial Average index. At the end of the trading day the DJIA decreased by 13.78 points, or by 0.12%, to 11478.13 points. The Nasdaq Composite rose by 6.59 points, or by 0.25%, to 2649.56 points. The Standard & Poor’s 500 grew by 3.17 points, or 0.25%, to 1247.08. According to investors, the market was affected by the opposing forces. On one hand, the positive economic signals are presented. However, they are leveled by the municipal bonds, situation in Europe and Korea. The concerns over the debt crisis in Europe and weekend tension over South Korea’s artillery drill moved to background during the session. During the most part of trading the stock indices were slightly increasing and declining, nevertheless, the Dow closed down. This drop was caused by the plunge in American Express shares that lost $1.51, or 3.4%, to $42.50. The company became more exposed after last week the Federal Reserve System proposed an offer regarding the interbank commissions on debit cards. Last week the stock of Visa and MasterCard descended following the FRS proposal. Nevertheless, the investors started to worry only on Monday about these measures for American Express. The stocks of other financial companies gained on Monday. J.P. Morgan Chase quotes rose by 28 cents, or by 0.7%, to $39.95, and Bank of America securities edged up 5 cents, or 0.4%, to $12.62.
3M stocks also shown the strong dynamics, having ascended by 97 cents, or 1.1%, to $87.34 after the company announced that it is discussing with its chief executive George Buckley the question about the successor.
Boeing quotes edged lower $1.76, or 2.7%, to $63.27 following the statement of chief executive of Qatar Airways that the company could cancel the orders for 787 Dreamliner if there are further delays of delivery. AT&T shares fell by 8 cents, or by 0.3%, to $29.13. The company said it will pay $1.93 million for spectrum licenses from Qualcomm as AT&T is trying to strengthen its positions in 4G service. Qualcomm plans to curtail the provision of mobile video services. The shares of the company shed 2 cents to $49.44. These days the market moves in an uptrend. For a week the DJIA rose by 0.7%, for third week in a row. Over a year the index increased by more than 10%. The investors, inspired by the recent US macroeconomic data, expect that the advance will last till the end of the year. However, the volume of trading will probably remain low this week because of the holidays, which can intensify the market fluctuations.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: December 21, 2010, 02:53:26 PMGBP/JPY has finished wave 131.61-129.55 (wave A - colored red in the chart) and is now developing corrective wave B. The targets of the correction are Fibonacci retracements of 131.61-129.55 and 130.62-129.55.
Resistances:
- 130.21 = .618 retracement
- 130.34 = .382 ret
- 130.58 = .50 ret
- 130.82 = .618 ret
If the price breaks below 129.55 to continue the downtrend the nearest target will be the expansions (objective point) off 133.03-130.75-131.61.
Support:
- 129.33 = objective point (OP)
More targets will be available when the size of the upwave is known.



Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com

[badman]

Fundamental Analysis, December 21, 2010

Asian stock markets have recorded index declines this morning due to renewed concerns for a military conflict between North and South Korea. As such, the Tokyo stock exchange declined by 0.9%, the Shanghai exchange dived by 1.4%, the Hong Kong stock exchange dropped 0.3% and the Singapore stock exchange fell by about 0.5%.
In the American macroeconomic arena, no major new data are expected today. Tomorrow, the Department of Commerce is expected to publish  the final GDP data for the third quarter, while the NAR will publish data regarding existing home sales for November. On Thursday the Department of Commerce will publish the data on non-consumable good orders and private spending and income data. On Friday there will not be trading on Wall Street due to the Christmas vacations.
In Europe, last week's decision by the Moody's credit rating agency to lower Ireland's credit rating by five levels, as well as concerns for a possible lowering of the rating for Ireland and Spain are weighing down on the European currency, which has weakened against all leading global currencies, falling to an unprecedented low against the Swiss franc. The dollar is strengthening against the majority of currencies, reaching a three-day high against the Euro.
The weakening of the Euro has as its background also a surprising drop in consumer confidence in the Eurozone. Preliminary data of the European Commission's index have shown that the index had dropped in December to a level of -11 points, as compared to -9.4 points in November, while analysts have predicted a rise to a -9 point level. This is the first decline in six months.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010



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USD/CHF, Wave analysis for December 21. (Daily Strategy)





USD/CHF
In the daily graph we can see Elliot's wave cycle, which had just completed the fourth corrective wave that marks the beginning of the fifth,declining wave. Since the first wave is equal in length to the third, the fifth wave is expected to be the longest. Thus, we should expect a wave of downwards movement that will lead the pair beyond the major support level of 0.9350 Swiss Francs for one United States dollar.
 
 

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010



More analysis - at instaforex.com





GBP/USD, Upward Movement is expected, December 21, 2010 (Daily Strategy)





GBP/USD
The current wave of downwards movements in the British pound – United States dollar pair had cleaned out the range of stop-loss orders that had been poised under the previous low around 1.5480, thus drying out the selling power left around these levels. The way is now open for a new wave of upwards movement that is expected to push the pair towards the last highs around 1.5800.
It would be well to note the strong positive deviation from the MACD indicators, supporting the bullish predictions on the pair. Despite that, to avoid a false buy signal, a buy deal may be made conditional around the weekly support level of 1.5340. The exit goal should be placed relative to the resistance level of 1.5800 GBP/USD.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010



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GBP/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for December 21, 2010






Overview:
Another correction has (rather unexpectedly) started on the pound. The sell signal with a target level of 1.5173 is presented. The current signal is strong and confirmed as the price managed to fixate below the Ichimoku Cloud and the Chinkou Span fixed below the price curve. It is recommended to start trading only after the correction movement ends. The first target of the downside movement is 1.5355 – the first support level. In case the first support level is passed the next target will be the second support level of 1.5176. The downwards motion will be presented until the price is below the Kijun-Sen (1.5614), but if the price strengthens above this line, then it is recommended to cut short positions. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, thus confirming the current sell signal and bullish sentiment on the market. The Bollinger Bands indicate the downtrend, the lines are converging and directed down, thus pointing to current correction. The MACD is ascending, thus indicating the correction movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with the target to 1.5355 and further to 1.5176. Stop Loss is placed above 1.5614. We enter the market and open short positions only after the MACD reverses down.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with the white bars in the indicators window.

 

Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

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Post Merge: December 22, 2010, 02:46:46 PMThe GBP/USD wave analysis for December 22, 2010.








The GBP/USD pair resumed the downside movement of the pound and passed the last Friday’s low, indicating the intention to extend the downward section initiated December 14. In the meantime, if this pair continues to decline, yesterday’s high will be interpreted as the 2nd wave of the future C. If so, yesterday’s ease has probably indicated the beginning of the 3rd wave in this C.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for December 22, 2010





Overview:
Another correction started without even touching the first support level, which is indicated by MACD. The developed sell signal has target level of 1.2966. This signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph and the price managed to fixate below the Ishimoku cloud. But as mentioned before, correction movement is continuing, therefore it is not recommended to trade down until it ends. The first target for downside movement is 1.3047 – the first support level. If the first support level is passed the next target will be the second support level of 1.2907. The downside movement remains until the price is below the Kijun-Sen (1.3220), short positions should be closed if the price strengthens above this line. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, thus confirming the current sell signal and indicates the bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the downwards movement, the lines are directed down and diverging. The MACD is ascending, thus point to the current correction movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with the target to 1.3047, in case this level is passed the target will be 1.2907. Stop Loss should be placed above 1.3220. Short positions should be opened only if the MACD reverses down.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

 

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.


 

Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010



More analysis - at instaforex.com


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Fundamental Analysis, December 22, 2010




The Asian stock markets have recorded index rises this morning due to the security situation calming down in Korea, as well as the positive trend on Wall Street. As such, Singapore's stock exchange strengthened by 0.3%, the Hong Kong stock exchange rose by 1.2%, the Seoul stock exchange climbed 0.9%, Taiwan grew by 0.5%, the Shanghai exchange advanced by 0.8%, whereas the Tokyo exchange increased by 1.3% after the Japanese central bank announced, as expected, that it will leave the interest rate unchanged, continuing to supply liquidity to the Japanese economy.

In the American macroeconomic sphere, the ICSC and Goldman-Sachs have reported yesterday that retail sales in the United States rose last week by 4.2% as compared to the parallel week in 2009. We will note that today no major data is expected to be published.

Oil closed on a two-year high, having climbed by 0.5% to 89.92 United States dollars per barrel of oil at the New York Commodities Exchange, the highest locking price since October 2008. Since the beginning of the year, oil prices have climbed by 13%.

Moody's credit rating agency announced yesterday that it is considering a possible downgrading of Portugal's credit rating. The agency stated that is may lower the rating, currently standing at A1, by a level or two, this due to concerns regarding Portugal's ability to raise money in the markets, as well as the uncertainty regarding economic growth due to its austerity plans.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010




More analysis - at instaforex.com


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NZD/USD (Daily Strategy), December 22, 2010









NZD/USD

On the technical level, the New Zealand dollar – United States dollar(NZD/USD) hit an interesting crossroads yesterday. On the one hand, the pair is on the verge of an upwards breakthrough of its minor trend line. On the other hand, it is on the verge of a downwards breakthrough of the meaningful support level 0.7360.

The change in investor sentiment moves the chances towards an upwards breach of the trend line and a renewal of the upwards movement that is expected to continue all the way up until the resistance level that braked the pair's movement during the previous wave of upwards movement around 0.7850. To avoid a false breach it is best to condition deal entry to on a daily close over the trend line passing through 0.7470. On the other hand, a daily close under the 0.7340 support level may lead the pair south, towards the 0.7020 support levels.

 

 

 

 

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com




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AUD/CHF, Head and Shoulders Bullish Reversal Pattern, December 22, 2010 (Daily Strategy)










AUD/CHF

 The short graph on the Australian dollar – Swiss franc pair is beginning to hint at the beginnings of a head and shoulders pattern. All that remains for the pattern to be complete is a short upwards movement towards the pattern's neckline around 0.9590. Those among us preferring risks can enter even at the present price levels, strengthening their position after the breach of the neckline.

More conservative traders would be best to wait for a close over the 0.9600 neckline, and only then enter a buy deal with a first realization goal at 0.9700, and a second, final goal for full realization marked near the resistance level of 0.9830 Swiss francs for one Australian dollar.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 

 

 

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

Crude oil
Oil price advanced to more than $90/barrel on Tuesday after American Petroleum Institute announced huge reduction of oil reserves last week.
On the NYMEX, light sweet crude futures for February were up 69 cents, or 0.8% to $90.06 per barrel.
According to API, U.S. oil reserves decreased by 5.8 mln barrel for December 11-17. Gasoline reserves declined by 2.9 mln barrel and reserves of distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, remained flat.
However, market participants are waiting for the reliable reserve data by the Department of Energy due on Wednesday. As per forecasts, the DOE data will indicate 2.3 mln barrel crude oil reserve decrease for December 11-17. As estimated, gasoline reserves should have advanced 900.000 barrel and reserves of distillates should have been down by 600.000 barrel.
The reserves have still been exceeding average levels, but extension of the recent decline, if any, will cause oil prices to increase in 2011.
In general on Tuesday oil futures followed stock markets and other external guidance. U.S. stock indices were up due to hopes for activity in the Mergers and Acquisitions sphere after Canadian Toronto-Dominion Bank agreed to purchase Chrysler Financial for $6,3 bln.
The trading was volatile as low activity increased the influence of small deals. Many traders have still been reluctant to open big positions before Christmas and New Year holidays, and most of December oil has been trading in a narrow range between $88 and $90.
Nevertheless, continuous data flow indicating improvement in the U.S. economy has still been supporting oil prices. Later this week several reports will give more details about the current economic state. GDP data for the 3rd quarter is due on Wednesday and durable goods orders report is expected on Thursday.


Gold
Gold futures closed on the upside on Tuesday amid declining euro and concerns about financial stability in Europe that maintained the interest to metal purchase. According to COMEX session’s results, February gold futures rose 2.70 dollar, or 0.2% to $1388.80 a troy ounce.
Gold prices had a hard time remaining on the upside amid the euro decreasing against the dollar. Advancing U.S. currency increases the price of gold futures for other currency holders. Financial uncertainty in Europe helps avoid the traditional gold price decline in the Christmas season, that is conditioned by traders and investors fixating the year’s profit from metal. Moody’s agency disturbed European debt markets by announcing possible decrease of Portugal’s A1 long-term credit rating. The agency referred to uncertainty about the country’s long-term economic prosperity and its ability to refinance debts at an acceptable price.
On Friday Moody’s lowered Ireland’s credit rating. It happened several weeks after the country received financial assistance from the EU. In the meantime, Fitch Ratings placed Greece in the list for rating revision and warned that its rating can be lowered to “junk”. These danger signals force investors to put funds in gold, and some investors purchase gold to protect themselves against currency fluctuations.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: December 22, 2010, 02:55:35 PMGBP/JPY is developing wave C of medium term downtrend (colored magenta in the chart). Within this wave C there are A-B-C subwaves (colored red) with subwave C still developing. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 133.03-130.75-131.61 (A-B waves), 131.61-129.55-130.30 (A-B subwaves).
Supports:
- 129.93 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 128.24 = objective point (OP)
- 127.92 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price keeps moving up its resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 131.61-129.23, and 130.30-129.23.
Resistances:
- 129.76 = .50 retracement
- 129.89 = .618 ret
- 130.14 = .382 ret
- 130.42 = .50 ret
- 130.70 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term trend is down it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscilaltor to open short positions. The overbought area lies 20 pips away and that is 129.76, 129.89 retracements.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: December 22, 2010, 02:56:38 PMThe AUD/USD is testing the resistance level near 1.0000. As it was mentioned before, a breakout of the resistance level of 0.9965 means that the currency pair is targeted to 1.0182.
Earlier on a daily chart the AUD/USD has formed the combination of candlesticks Bullish Engulfing which indicates the uprising movement, confirmed further. This combination of candlesticks developed near the support level of 0.9537, where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound took place after a downside movement. This combination of candlesticks provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct. However, in case the reversal takes place and the AUD/USD breaks through the support level of 0.9710, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537.



Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: December 23, 2010, 05:09:01 AMTechnical analysis of the USD/CAD for December 22, 2010
Support levels: 1.0000, 0.9980, 0.9930
Resistance levels: 1.0167, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is making a rebound after it failed to break the support level 1.0212. Earlier the USD/CAD rebounded from the support level of 1.0000, which is also a bottom of a wide trading range.
The uprising movement is supported by the fact that on a 4-hour chart the MACD divergence appeared. As it was mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks through the level of 1.0290, then this will lead to uprising movement with a target to 1.0380. The breakthrough of 1.0380 will mean that a pullback from 1.0680 ended and further advance should be expected. Moreover, a breakout of 1.0380 will indicate the formation of “Triple Bottom”.
Nonetheless, a breakthrough of support level of 0.9980-1.0000 will allow the pair to reach the 0.9930 level.
In a midterm, the currency pair will probably remain within the bounds of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. In case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0680 will confirm the end of consolidation and that the downtrend from 1.3063 is breached. In this case it is forecasted that the USD/CAD will move up to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: December 23, 2010, 05:16:50 AMCandlestick analysis of the USD/CHF for December 22
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF is testing the support level of 0.9559 again. The viewpoint on the currency pair is still bearish as earlier the USD/CHF has formed the combination of candlesticks Falling Three Methods which indicates the downside movement.
This combination of candlesticks shows that the USD/CHF was increasing during a couple of weeks, but the rebound took place after the USD/CHF failed to break out the level of 1.0066. This means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence. The downside movement is supported by the fact that the currency pair broke through the line of uptrend.
A breakthrough of support level of 0.9850 confirms this point of view. The breakout of 0.9559 will target the currency pair to 0.9462.
It is recommended to place the stop-orders slightly above 0.9736 as the breakout of this level will target the currency pair to 0.9850.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: December 23, 2010, 11:01:05 AMOn a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD has continued its downside movement with target to 1.5300. At present, the GBP/USD is bouncing off 1.5355. Earlier the pair dropped strongly after it failed to break out the resistance level of 1.5900.
The viewpoint is still bearish as the pair formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here, Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: December 23, 2010, 11:34:08 AM
AUD/USD has finished wave 4 (0.9995-0.9953) and is now moving within wave 5 of the medium term uptrend - colored red in the chart. Wave 5 consists of A-B-C subwaves with subwave C still developing - colored yellow in the chart.

The targets above the current level are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9539-1.0031-0.9833 (waves A-B of larger degree), 0.9833-0.9930-0.9843 (waves 1-2), 0.9843-0.9995 (waves 3-4), 0.9953-1.0013-0.9987 (subwave A and B in 5).

Resistances:

- 1.0047 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and objective point (OP)
- 1.0084 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0097 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0105 = OP
- 1.0137 = COP
- 1.0144 = SXOP

If the price reverses down for a correction the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up starting from 0.9953 - this wave is not developed yet.



Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the prevailing trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator in conjunction with Fib supports. The oversold area is 20-25 pips away from the current price.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: December 23, 2010, 11:58:51 AMGBP/JPY is developing wave C of medium term downtrend (colored magenta in the chart). Within this wave C there are A-B-C subwaves (colored red) with subwave C still developing. And there are 5 waves of still smaller degree in the latter C subwave - colored yellow in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 133.03-130.75-131.61 (A-B waves), 131.61-129.55-130.30 (A-B subwaves), 130.30-129.23-129.72 (waves 1-2), 129.72-128.28-128.70 (waves 3-4).

Supports:

- 127.99-92 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP)
- 127.81 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 127.26 = objective point (OP)
- 126.97-92 = confluence area of XOP and super expanded objective point (SXOP)

If the price reverses up its resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the downwave from 130.30 - this wave is not developed yet.

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the prevailing trend is up it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator in conjunction with Fib resistances. The overbought area is 30-40 pips away from the current price.


Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

More analysis - at instaforex.com

Post Merge: December 23, 2010, 12:55:35 PM
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF has successfully broken through the support level of 0.9559. As mentioned before, now downside movement targeted to 0.9462 should be expected.
The viewpoint on the currency pair is still bearish as earlier the USD/CHF has formed the combination of candlesticks Falling Three Methods which indicates the downside movement.
This combination of candlesticks shows that the USD/CHF was increasing during a couple of weeks, but the rebound took place after the USD/CHF failed to break out the level of 1.0066. This means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence. The downside movement is supported by the fact that the currency pair broke through the line of the uptrend.
A breakthrough of support level of 0.9850 confirms this point of view.
It is recommended to place the stop-orders slightly above 0.9736 as the breakout of this level will target the currency pair to 0.9850.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
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Post Merge: December 23, 2010, 01:59:20 PMSupport levels: 1.0000, 0.9980, 0.9930
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380

On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is rolling back after it failed to break through the resistance level of 1.0212. However, EMA (55) may support the pair. Earlier the USD/CAD has rebounded from the support level of 1.0000, which is a bottom of a wide trading range.
The uprising movement is confirmed by the fact that on a 4-hour chart the MACD divergence appeared. As it was mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks out 1.0259, then this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0380. Further the breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback and that further advance should be expected. Moreover, the breakthrough of 1.0380 will point to the formation of “Triple Bottom”.
Nevertheless, the breakout of the support level near 0.9980-1.0000 will allow the pair to reach 0.9930.
In a midterm the currency pair will probably remain within the limits of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. Nonetheless, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout will confirm that the consolidation ended and that the downtrend is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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[badman]

The USD/CHF technical analysis and trading recommendations for December 23, 2010








Overview:
It seems that franc started downside movement. New sell signal with 0.9423 target leve has been formed. The signal is strong and confirmed, as the Chinkou Span managed to fixate below the price chart and the price fixed below the Ichimoku Cloud. Therefore, now the first target of the downside movement is the second support level 0.9408. In case this level is passed the next target will be the third support level of 0.9255. The downside movement remains until the price is below the Kijun-Sen (0.9610), if the price fixates above this line it is advisable to cut short positions. The Chinkou Span is below the price curve, thus indicating the bearish sentiment and confirming the sell signal. The Bollinger Bands seem to show the beginning of downside trend, the lines are diverging and directed down. The MACD is descending indicating the downward movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with the target to 0.9408, in case this level is passed the next target will be 0.9255. Stop Loss should be placed above the Kijun-Sen (0.9610). In case the MACD reverses up short positions should be cut manually.
 

In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

 

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with the white bars in the indicators window.

 

Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
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Fundamental Analysis, December 23, 2010



The national office of statistics in Britain has announced yesterday that the country's GDP rose in the third quarter by 0.7% as compared to the second quarter. Growth had been more moderate than preliminary estimates of a 0.8% growth, as well as economists' predictions of a 0.8% increase. Europe's stock exchanges, having recovered all the declines they incurred due to the collapse of the American Lehman Brothers investment bank in 2008, had closed yesterday on a mixed trend, with the London exchange locking at a 0.6% rise, the Frankfurt exchange retreating by 0.1%, and Paris declining by 0.2%

A mixed trend with a tendency for index rises has been recorded this morning in the Asian stock markets, led by the stock of the commodities sector, after the price of oil approached 90 United States dollars per barrel of oil. The growth has also been influenced by the index rises recorded on Wall Street yesterday. Therefore, the Seoul stock exchange declines by 0.4%. The Hong Kong stock exchange climbs by 0.2%, and the Taiwan stock exchange strengthens by 0.2% as well. Due to a Japanese holiday, trade will not be conducted today at the Tokyo stock exchange.

In the macroeconomic sphere, the United States Department of Commerce reported yesterday that the American GDP grew in the third quarter at an annualized rate of 2.6%, higher growth than expected according to preliminary data published in the previous month, pointing to a 2.5% growth. That said, growth was more moderate than predicted by economists, who predicted a 2.9% growth in the third quarter.

More from the macroeconomic sphere: the real estate agents' association announce yesterday that existing home prices rose 5.6% in November as compare to the previous month, to an annualized rate of 4.68 million homes. Growth was slightly higher than analysts' predictions of an annualized rate of 4.66 million homes in November, as compared to an annualized rate of 4.43 million homes in October. Still, the sales rate is lower by 27.9% from the rate for November 2009.

.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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CHF/JPY, Signs of Reversing the Downward Trend, December 23, 2010 (Daily Strategy)






CHF/JPY

The Swiss Frank – Japanese Yen is beginning to show signs of tiredness over everything related to its bullish trend that had brought it yesterday to a new high around the strong resistance level of 88.00. The pair's failure to breach the resistance level, in combination with the negative deviation developing between the price movement and the MACD indicator, lead us to estimate that the pair is headed south.

A final confirmation for a trend reversal and a new wave of downwards movement will be received only after the pair breaches the bottom of the shuffle pattern it entered during last week, around 86.15. The first support level, expected to stall the negative momentum, should such a thing appear, will be poised around 84.15, while the meaningful support level around 82.15 will serve us as a final goal for a complete exit from the sell position.
 

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Post Merge: December 24, 2010, 02:28:38 PMThe EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for December 24, 2010


4-hour timeframe





Overview:
Another correction started without even touching the first support level, which is indicated by MACD. The formed sell signal has target level of 1.2966. This signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph and the price managed to fixate below the Ishimoku cloud. But as mentioned before, correction movement is continuing, therefore it is not recommended to trade down until it ends. The first target for downside movement is 1.3047 – the first support level. If the first support level is passed the next target will be the second support level of 1.2907. The downside movement remains while the price is below the Kijun-Sen (1.3220), short positions should be closed if the price strengthens above this line. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, thus confirming the current sell signal and indicates the bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show possible completion of the downwards movement or a prolonged correction, the lines are not diverging and directed sideways. It is recommended to resume trading after the lines start to diverge again. The MACD is ascending, thus pointing to the current correction movement.
 

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with the target to 1.3047, in case this level is passed the target will be 1.2907. Stop Loss should be placed above 1.3127. Short positions should be opened only if the MACD reverses down and Bollinger bands start to diverge.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
 

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

 

Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010




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The GBP/USD wave analysis for December 24, 2010.






Yesterday the GBP/USD pair was not active and was trading within a narrow sideways corridor near the 54 figure level. At the same time, all changes take place within the incomplete 3rd wave of the future C, that has been gaining quite complex inner wave structure. Apparently, we will see the further development of this situation after the holidays.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
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The USD/JPY wave analysis for December 24, 2010.






The USD/JPY pair trading was quite volatile which resulted in testing the 93.00 level. At the same time, wave e of the estimated triangular correction structure has become longer, which can allow the 4th wave to have more complex form. Simultaneously, strong MACD divergence supports the prediction that the price should go up.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010



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The USD/CHF technical analysis and trading recommendations for December 24, 2010. Week review









Ishimoku:

New sell signal with 0.9324 target level has been formed. The signal is very strong, as the price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and the Chinkou Span managed to fixate below the price chart. Therefore, downside movement is most likely to extend as there are no signs of reversal or at least correction. It is recommended to trade down with the second support level 0.9373 as the first target. If the level 0.9373 is passed, the third support level 0.9198 will be the next target. If the price manages to fixate above the Kijun-Sen (0.9775) the signal will grow weaker and short positions should be closed in this case. The price is located below the Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-Sen lines and below the Ichimoku cloud, which indicates downtrend. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards which predicts further downside movement in the short term. The Kijun-Sen is also directed downwards which predicts further downside movement in the long term. Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B crossed, as expected, and formed a sell signal; the cloud itself change its movement to downside. Chinkou Span is located below the price graph, which also indicates downtrend.
 

Bollinger Bands:
This indicator shows downside movement. The lines are expanding and directed downwards. This fact supposes further downside movement.
 

MACD:
This indicator shows downside movement at the moment. This predicts further downside movement. In case MACD reverses up, this will denote the beginning of correction.
Trading recommendations:
At present the USD/CHF pair is now characterized by downside movement. Current target is 0.9373. Stop loss should be placed above Kijun-Sen (0.9775). In case MACD reverses, short positions should be cut manually.
 

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with the white bars in the indicators window.

 

Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com




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The EUR/USD wave analysis for December 24, 2010









The EUR/USD currency pair could not escape from quite a narrow sideway corridor being stuck between the levels of the 31 and 32 figures. At the same time, slow price fluctuations form its complex wave structure that can be both correction within the future downside section and the beginning of a more complex horizontal correction structure. Simultaneously, forthcoming Christmas holidays have strong influence on the market activity, which is clearly demonstrated by the euro.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 

 




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[insta_poster]

Candlestick analysis of the AUD/USD for December 27, 2010
The AUD/USD has slightly rebounded after it successfully broke the resistance level near 1.0024. Now upside movement targeted for this year’s high 1.0182 should be expected.
Earlier on a daily chart the AUD/USD has formed the combination of candlesticks Bullish Engulfing which indicates the uprising movement, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed near the support level of 0.9537, where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound took place after a downside movement. This combination of candlesticks provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct.
However, in case the reversal takes place and the AUD/USD breaks through the support level of 0.9710, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537. 

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

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Post Merge: December 27, 2010, 11:48:03 AMSupport levels: 1.0000, 0.9980, 0.9930
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is descending after it failed to break through the resistance level of 1.0212. If the downside movement extends, the pair is expected to bounce up near strong support level of 1.0000.
The uprising movement is confirmed by the fact that on a 4-hour chart the MACD divergence appeared. As it was mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks out 1.0290, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0380. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback and that further advance should be expected. Moreover, the breakthrough of 1.0380 will point to the formation of “Triple Bottom”.
Nevertheless, the breakout of the support level near 0.9980-1.0000 will allow the pair to reach 0.9930.
In a midterm the currency pair will probably remain within the limits of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. Nonetheless, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0680 will confirm that the consolidation ended and that the downtrend with 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

Post Merge: December 27, 2010, 12:09:06 PM

On a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF has made a sharp rebound from 0.9500. Nevertheless, the viewpoint on the currency pair is still bearish. As mentioned before, the breakout of the support level 0.9559 targeted the USD/CHF pair to 0.9462.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF has formed the combination of candlesticks Falling Three Methods which indicates the downside movement.
This combination of candlesticks shows that the USD/CHF was increasing during a couple of weeks, but the rebound took place after the USD/CHF failed to break out the level of 1.0066. This means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence. The downside movement is supported by the fact that the currency pair broke through the line of the uptrend.
A breakthrough of support level of 0.9850 confirms this point of view.
It is recommended to place the stop-orders slightly above 0.9669 as the breakout of this level will target the currency pair to 0.9850.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: December 27, 2010, 01:58:03 PMOn a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD is consolidating after a drop to 1.5355. Nevertheless, the viewpoint on this pair is still bearish as the downtrend still remains. Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break out the resistance level of 1.5900.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

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Post Merge: December 27, 2010, 02:36:09 PMGBP/JPY is developing wave C of medium term downtrend (the wave and expansions off A-B waves are colored magenta in the chart). Within this wave C there are four subwaves (colored red) and potential subwave 5 that is developing now. Within subwave 5 there are still smaller A-B-C waves - colored orange red. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 135.03-126.43-134.19, 134.19-129.33-133.03, 133.03-130.75-131.61 (waves 1-2), 131.61-127.43-128.54 (waves 3-4), 128.54-127.69-128.41 (subwaves A-B within wave 5), 128.41-127.79-128.06 (still smaller waves).

Supports:

- 127.44 = objective point (OP)
- 127.06-03 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP)
- 126.44 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 126.18 = SXOP
- 125.96 = contracted objective point (COP)

If the price reverses up the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 131.61-127.43.

Resistances:

- 129.03 = .382 retracement
- 129.52 = .50 ret

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the prevailing trend is down it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator. The overbought area is 30-40 pips away from the current price.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
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Post Merge: December 28, 2010, 11:31:31 AMThis currency pair is now moving within wave C of daily degree (the wave and expansions off A-B waves are colored royal blue in the chart). Within this wave C there are five subwaves - colored magenta. And subwave 5 is still developing. Within subwave 5 there are still smaller waves A-B-C (colored yellow in the chart) with subwave C still developing.

The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9539-1.0031-0.9833 (waves A-B of larger degree, daily), 0.9833-0.9930-0.9843 (waves 1-2), 0.9843-1.0069-0.9990 (waves 3-4), and 0.9990-1.0060-1.0013 (subwaves A-B within wave 5).

Resistances:

- 1.0094 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0126-30-37 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and two contracted objective points (COP)

If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0013 - this wave is not developed yet.

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the prevailing trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The zero level is 15 pips away from the current price, the oversold area is 30-35 pips away from the current price which may correspond to a Fib support only on smaller timeframes, so stand aside in the meantime.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: December 28, 2010, 11:52:57 AMGBP/JPY has developed five waves of medium term downtrend (colored red in the chart) from 131.61 to 127.34. These 5 waves are the subwaves of wave C of larger degree (colored magenta in the chart). Current wave up is potential wave A in A-B-C cycle that is the retracement to 131.61-127.34. Now the targets above the current price level are Fibonacci retracements of 131.61-127.34 and 128.54-127.34.

Resistances:

- 128.08 = .618 retracement
- 128.97 = .382 ret
- 129.48 = .50 ret
- 129.98 = .618 ret

If the price resumes the downtrend and breaks below 127.34 the nearest supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 135.03-126.43-134.19, 134.19-129.33-133.03, 133.03-130.75-131.61 (waves 1-2), 131.61-127.43-128.54 (waves 3-4).

Supports:

- 125.96 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 125.64-59 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and objective point (OP)


Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the pair is now trading in a flat but the prevailing trend is down it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator. The overbought area is 20-30 pips away from the current price which corresponds to 128.08 resistance.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: December 28, 2010, 01:24:02 PM

The EUR/GBP currency pair started this week on the upside.
Nevertheless, as mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rollback took place.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: December 28, 2010, 02:48:17 PMTechnical analysis of the USD/CAD for December 28, 2010

Support levels: 1.0000, 0.9980, 0.9930
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is moving further to the parity level after it failed to break through the resistance level of 1.0212. However, the pair is expected to bounce up near strong support level of 1.0000 that is also a bottom of a broader range.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0290 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0380. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback and that further advance should be expected. Moreover, the breakthrough of 1.0380 will point to the formation of “Triple Bottom”.
Nevertheless, the breakout of the support level near 0.9980-1.0000 will allow the pair to reach 0.9930.
In the midterm the currency pair will probably remain within the limits of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. Nonetheless, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0680 will confirm that the consolidation ended and that the downtrend with 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866. 

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: December 28, 2010, 03:02:17 PMCandlestick analysis of the GBP/USD for December 28, 2010

On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD is bouncing off after a drop to 1.5355. Nevertheless, the viewpoint on this pair is still bearish as the downtrend still remains. Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break out the resistance level of 1.5900.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[badman]

Fundamental Analysis, December 27, 2010
Asian stock markets opened the new trading week on a positive note due to a rise in interest rates in China over the weekend. As such, the Tokyo stock exchange rose by 0.8%, the Seoul exchange rose by 0.1%, Singapore climbed by 0.9%, Taiwan ascended by 0.5%, the Shanghai exchange rose by 0.7%, while the stock exchanges of Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and the Philippines were closed for Christmas.

As we mentioned, this Saturday the Chinese central bank announced that it would raise the interest rate for the second time running, after inflation in the country had risen to the second highest level in the last two years, due to predictions by the government that inflation would accelerate in the first half of 2011. The central bank raised the interest rate by 0.25% to 5.81% after having raised it for the first time in almost three years on October 19th.

In the American macroeconomic sphere, last Thursday the Department of Commerce announced that the volume of orders on non-perishable goods in the United States declined in November by 1.3% as compared to economists' predictions of a more moderate 0.5% decline. Furthermore, the Department stated that the amount of new unemployment claims in the United States had declined by 3,000 to a level of 420 thousand, as predicted by economists. Furthermore, the volume of new house sales in the United States had expanded last months by 5.5% as compared to October, to an annualized rate of 290 thousand homes. The rise was more moderate than predicted by economists, who predicted annualized rate of 300 thousand homes. The macroeconomic schedule for this week will be sparse due to Christmas celebrations around the globe.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010



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GBP/USD. Opportunities to buy, For December 27, 2010 (Daily Strategy)





GBP/USD

The pound continues showing weakness against the dollar, though in the last two trading days the pair appears to have stabilized after running up against the powerful support level around 1.5400, stemming from the combination of the pair's 200-day moving average and the Fibonacci level, which, between them, have succeeded in braking the sharp decline that had been typical of the couple during the last week and a half.

In most cases, a 200-day moving average forms a bottom when a pair is not able to breach it. Adding the relatively positive sentiment on the financial market and the strong positive deviation of the MACD indicator forms a buy opportunity on the pair on a relatively low price due to the positive market atmosphere. It is possible to enter a buy deal on the present prices with two exit goals, the first at 1.5560 and the second at 1.5780 United States dollars for one British pound.

 

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For December 27, 2010

_____WEEKLY______

Weekly - R3 = 1.5783

Weekly - R2 = 1.5680

Weekly - R1 = 1.5562

Weekly Pivot = 1.5459

Weekly - S1 = 1.5341

Weekly - S2 = 1.5238

Weekly - S3 = 1.5120







_____MONTHLY______

Monthly - R3 = 1.6895

Monthly - R2 = 1.6597

Monthly - R1 = 1.6079

Monthly Pivot = 1.5781

Monthly - S1 = 1.5263

Monthly - S2 = 1.4965

Monthly - S3 = 1.4447





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


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The GBP/USD wave analysis for December 27, 2010








Moving in a very narrow price corridor the GBP/USD has closed near the upper line of the local downtrend that has been developing since December 15. Thus, the pair has probably continued the formation of inner wave structure of the 2nd in the 3rd (future C). The option of pound further downside movement could be preemptive if it was not for the MACD divergence that give advantage to the British currency in the medium term.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
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The EUR/USD wave analysis for December 27, 2010









On the edge of the holidays the EUR/USD  has been almost flat and the price has been moving along the line near the level of the 31 figure. At the same time the euro is most likely to be in the limits of the 2nd wave in the 3rd (5th), that has been forming in the new section of the downtrend developing after December 14th. However, it is quite difficult to estimate further market behavior. Although, the dollar has certain advantage in the current situation.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 




More analysis - at instaforex.com







Post Merge: December 29, 2010, 05:21:21 PM
EUR/GBP, Downward Continuation December 29, 2010 (Daily Strategy)





EUR/GBP

 

The Euro – British Pound pair had risen to a new local level, pricking the major 0.8567 resistance level, but eventually closing deep under it. The low close at the end of the trading day had left a long tail creating the bearish key reversal pattern, signaling of a possible trend reversal.

A light negative deviation in the MACD indicator supports the expectations for a beginning of a downwards movement towards the support area that had succeeded in braking the pair in the previous two lows, around the 0.8370 level – our goal on the sell position.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


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Fundamental Analysis, December 29, 2010


Asian trading continue this morning on a mixed trend as well, with a tendency for index declines, with the Tokyo stock exchange having dropped 0.5%, the Hong Kong exchange having dropped 0.8%, the Taiwan exchange having dived by 1.3%, whereas the Seoul exchange climbed by 0.8%. In the Asian macroeconomic sphere, the Tokyo Ministry of Commerce announced yesterday that industrial production in Japan had climbed by 1% in November, while the Japanese consumer price index had dropped at an annualized rate of 0.5%, as predicted by analysts.

In the American macroeconomic sphere, the consumer confidence index was published yesterday in the United States, recording an unexpected decline in December due to concerns over the state of the labor market. The index had declined to a level of 52.5 points in December, despite economists' predictions that it would climb to a level of 56.9. The consumer expectations index dropped to a level of 71.9 in December, as compared to a level of 73.6 in November.

Furthermore in the macroeconomic sphere, disappointing data had been published in the United States real estate market. The Case-Shiller home price index for the 20 largest cities in the United States has shown that the home prices in these cities had declined in October at a sharper rate than expected, another sign that the United States labor market is still slow to recover.

In Europe, the central statistics bureau in France had reported that the country's GDP grew slower than expected in the third quarter. The French economy grew by 0.3% in the third quarter, as compared to a 0.4% growth in the past month. The trade in Europe's stock markets had locked on a mixed trend yesterday, with the Frankfurt stock exchange having grown 0.02%, the Paris exchange having declined by 0.1%, and the Madrid exchange having climbed by 0.1%.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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The EUR/USD wave analysis for December 29, 2010





Yesterday’s quite volatile EUR/USD trading allowed the price to drop from yesterday’s highs to a level below the 31 figure. Thus, the euro has still been within the horizontal corridor, that currently has signs of triangular shape. If so, yesterday’s maximum 1.3278 can be apex of this triangle, or its part. In this case, after the d wave is completed we can expect a new turn of euro growth in the direction of the levels located near the 32 figure.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
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The USD/JPY wave analysis for December 29, 2010





The USD/JPY pair collapse and testing of correction level 61.8%, calculated according to the November-December uptrend, supposes that the 3rd (or c) wave has formed within the downside section after December 15. As a result, the price might start advancing in favor of the dollar either from current levels, or after another attempt to test the 81.85 level.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for December 29, 2010


4-hour timeframe



Overview:
Euro has been demonstrating uncertain holiday movement, thus it is recommended to refrain from trading. The sell signal has been cancelled, instead a new buy signal with target level 1.3397 has been formed. The formed signal already became stronger and weakened back. In general the Ishimoku and the Bollinger Bands are indicating that highly volatile sideways movement has begun, which is extremely dangerous for trading. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and shows bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show sideways movement, the lines are not diverging and directed sideways. The MACD is descending, thus pointing to the current downside movement.

 

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is not recommended to trade until the pair stabilizes or until the beginning of trend movement, which is to be indicated by the Bollinger Bands.

In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.


 

Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
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[insta_poster]

The GBP/JPY is moving within corrective subwave B (colored red in the chart) of wave 5 (colored magenta) of medium term downtrend. The targets of the corrective upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.99-126.09 and 128.54-126.09.

Resistances:

- 126.82 = .382 retracement
- 127.03-04 = confluence area of .382 and .50 retracements
- 127.26-32 = confluence area of .618 and .50 retracements
- 127.60 = .618 ret

If the downtrend continues and the price breaks below 126.09 the nearest supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 135.03-126.43-134.19, 134.19-129.33-133.03, 133.03-130.75-131.61 (waves 1-2), 131.61-127.43-128.54 (waves 3-4).

Supports:

- 125.96 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 125.64-59 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and objective point (OP)
- 125.17 = XOP


Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is down but current wave up is corrective it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator and a Fib resistance to consider shorts. The overbought area is 25-35 pips away from the current price. So 126.82 and 127.03-04 are the levels to watch for topping signals to enter short positions.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
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Post Merge: December 30, 2010, 01:56:13 PMUSD/CAD technical analysis for December 30, 2010


Support levels: 0.9980, 0.9930, 0.9820
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is testing the support level near 0.9980-1.0000 again. Most of 2010 this level demonstrated substantial demand since Canadian companies tend to buy dollars for lower price. As mentioned before, the breakout of support level at 0.99880 will allow this pair to reach 0.9930.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected. Moreover, the breakthrough of 1.0380 will point to the formation of “Triple Bottom”.
In the midterm the currency pair will probably remain within the limits of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. Nonetheless, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0680 will confirm that the consolidation ended and that the downtrend with 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866. 


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: December 30, 2010, 02:05:08 PMUSD/CHF candlestick analysis for December 30, 2010

The USD/CHF currency pair has been refreshing all-time highs amid low trading volumes. The viewpoint on the currency pair is still bearish. The breakout of the support level 0.9500 targeted the USD/CHF pair to 0.9400 with 0.9350 as the next traget.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF has formed the combination of candlesticks Falling Three Methods which indicates the downside movement.
This combination of candlesticks shows that the USD/CHF was increasing during a couple of weeks, but the rebound took place after the USD/CHF failed to break out the level of 1.0066. This means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence. The downside movement is supported by the fact that the currency pair broke through the line of the uptrend.
A breakthrough of support level of 0.9850 confirms this point of view.
It is recommended to place the stop-orders slightly above 0.9669 as the breakout of this level will target the currency pair to 0.9850.

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the prevailing trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The zero level is just within some 5 pips away from the current price, the oversold area is 15-20 pips away from the current price - and corresponds to 1.0089 support.
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: December 30, 2010, 02:12:08 PMGBP/USD candlestick analysis for December 30, 2010

On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD is approaching the upper limit of the downtrend. The viewpoint on the pair is still bearish. Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break out the resistance level of 1.5900. Nevertheless, if the 1.5650 level is broken it will be recommended to close short positions since this will lead to advance to 1.5900.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: December 30, 2010, 02:19:26 PMAUD/USD candlestick analysis for December 30, 2010

The AUD/USD has reached a new all-time high 1.0197.
Earlier on a daily chart the AUD/USD has formed the combination of candlesticks Bullish Engulfing which indicates the uprising movement, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed near the support level of 0.9537, where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound took place after a downside movement. This combination of candlesticks provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct.
However, in case the reversal takes place and the AUD/USD breaks through the support level of 0.9710, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[badman]

The USD/JPY wave analysis for December 30, 2010





Highly dynamical decrease of the USD/JPY pair allowed the price to fall even deeper than expected. At the same time, in spite of the seemingly complete 5-wave structure of the whole downtrend, started December 15, the yen may decrease further and reach 81.40 – 81.20 levels. However, taking MACD divergence into account, a reversal in favor of the dollar may occur anytime.

 

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


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The EUR/USD wave analysis for December 30, 2010






In general the EUR/USD pair situation has been developing as expected, but it was more dynamic. As a result we can see that the d wave of the supposed triangle is completed and the growth from the 1.3080 level will be limited by its future e wave. At the same time, forthcoming holidays might provide the conditions for the wave of the correction triangle to become more complex and prolonged, which will allow the price to advance to levels above the 34 figure.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010



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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for December 30, 2010



4-hour timeframe




Overview:
Euro has been demonstrating uncertain holiday movement, thus it is recommended to refrain from trading. The buy signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph and the price managed to fixate inside the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, the first target for the upside movement is 1.3270 – the second resistance level. If the second resistance level is passed the next target will be the third resistance level of 1.3340. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3165), if the price manages to fixate below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and shows bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the beginning of the upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is ascending, thus pointing to the current upside movement.
 

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3270, in case this level is passed the target will be 1.3340. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3165. In case the MACD reverses down long positions should be cut manually.
 

In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

 

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.


 

Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

AUD/USD candlestick analysis for January 3, 2011

The AUD/USD is continuing to reach all-time highs.
Earlier on a daily chart the AUD/USD has formed the combination of candlesticks Bullish Engulfing which indicates the uprising movement, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed near the support level of 0.9537, where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound took place after a downside movement. This combination of candlesticks provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct.
However, in case the reversal takes place and the AUD/USD breaks through the support level of 0.9825, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537. 


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 03, 2011, 11:41:21 AMGBP/USD candlestick analysis for January 3, 2011

On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD has failed to break through the resistance level at 1.5650 to rebound further. The viewpoint on the pair is still bearish.
Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break the resistance level of 1.5900. Nevertheless, if the GBP/USD manages to close above the 1.5650 level, it will be recommended to close short positions since this will lead to advance to 1.5900.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 03, 2011, 11:48:44 AMUSD/CAD technical analysis for January 3, 2011

Support levels: 0.9930, 0.9820, 0.9750
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD has successfully broken through the support level near 0.9980-1.0000. At the moment the viewpoint to the pair is bearish.
Most of 2010 this level has demonstrated substantial demand since Canadian companies tend to buy dollars for lower price. However, low trading volume caused exaggerated fluctuations of this currency pair last week. Therefore the bears have easily broken the 0.9980 level. As mentioned before, the breakout of support level at 0.99880 will allow this pair to reach 0.9930 with 0.9750 as the next target.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the currency pair will probably remain within the limits of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. Nonetheless, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0680 will confirm that the consolidation ended and that the downtrend with 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 03, 2011, 11:56:06 AMEUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)

The EUR/GBP currency pair ended the previous week on the upside amid typical end of month purchases.
Nevertheless, as mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rollback took place.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 03, 2011, 12:03:38 PMUSD/CHF candlestick analysis for January 3, 2011

USD/CHF candlestick analysis for January 1, 2011
The USD/CHF currency pair is continuing to reach all-time lows. The viewpoint on the currency pair is still bearish. The breakout of the support level 0.9350 targeted the USD/CHF pair to 0.9300 with 0.9250 as the next target.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF has formed the combination of candlesticks Falling Three Methods which indicates the downside movement.
This combination of candlesticks shows that the USD/CHF was increasing during a couple of weeks, but the rebound took place after the USD/CHF failed to break out the level of 1.0066. This means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence. The downside movement is supported by the fact that the currency pair broke through the line of the uptrend.
A breakthrough of support level of 0.9850 confirms this point of view.
It is recommended to place the stop-orders slightly above 0.9560 as the breakout of this level will target the currency pair to 0.9669.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[badman]

GBP/USD Continuing Upward Trend January 03, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





GBP/USD

 

From a technical standpoint, the  GBP/USD pair is expected to continue moving north at least up to the 1.5850 resistance level. The stop loss order may be placed slightly under the last low and 200-day moving average around 1.5330 United States dollars for one British pound. We will note here the impressive positive deviation on the MACD indicator, supporting the bullish prediction for the pair.

 

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 03 to January 07, 2011




_____WEEKLY______

Weekly - R3 = 1.6041

Weekly - R2 = 1.5852

Weekly - R1 = 1.5721

Weekly Pivot = 1.5532

Weekly - S1 = 1.5401

Weekly - S2 = 1.5212

Weekly - S3 = 1.5081







_____MONTHLY______

Monthly - R3 = 1.6451

Monthly - R2 = 1.6180

Monthly - R1 = 1.5885

Monthly Pivot = 1.5614

Monthly - S1 = 1.5319

Monthly - S2 = 1.5048

Monthly - S3 = 1.4753








Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


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Fundamental Analysis, January 03, 2011



Asia's stock markets opened the New Year with index rises this morning, this due to optimism regarding the world economic recovery in 2011, and the moderation of political activity in China. As such, Hong Kong was up by 1.4%, Seoul added 0.7%, Singapore climbed by 1.2% and Taiwan climbed 0.5%. In Japan, Australia, China and Thailand the stock markets are closed today for the holidays.

In the global macroeconomic sphere, on Saturday it has been reported that the Chinese procurement managers' index had descended for the first time in five months, suggesting that government's efforts to cool off the economy are beginning to bear fruit. The index had descended to a level of 53.9 points in December, as compared to 55.2 points in November.

This week investors and economists are expected to be concerned about the U.S. labor market, with the ADP employment report tracking the number of jobs in the private non-agricultural sector, expected to be published on Wednesday. It is also expected to point an improvement in the labor market. On Friday the Fed's monthly employment report is scheduled to be published, expected to point to a slight decline in U.S. unemployment to a level of 9.7% and a growth of 140 thousand jobs. Great attention will also be paid to the Federal Reserve Chairman's Senate testimony on Friday, which may discuss the possibility of extending quantitative easing into the coming year as well.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 3, 2011


4-hour timeframe





Overview:
Euro has been demonstrating upwards movement. The buy signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph and the price managed to fixate above the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, the first target for the upside movement is 1.3397 – the target level. If this level is passed the next target will be the resistance level at 1.3600. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3165), if the price manages to fixate below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is ascending, thus pointing to the current upside movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3397; in case this level is passed the target will be 1.3600. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3248. In case the MACD reverses down long positions should be cut manually.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
 

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

 

Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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The GBP/USD wave analysis for January 3, 2011






High volatility during the last trading day of the year allowed the GBP/USD pair to advance by more than two figures. Current situation implies that the December 28 low (1.5345) is completing the downward section having developed since December 14. This, in its turn, might denote formation of the C wave of November-December downward correction. If so, we can suppose that the pound will advance further in the direction of the 1.5800-1.5820 levels.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

USD/CAD technical analysis for January 4, 2011

Support levels: 0.9930, 0.9820, 0.9750
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD has dropped to 0.9891. At the moment the viewpoint to the pair is bearish.
As mentioned before, low trading volume caused exaggerated fluctuations of this currency pair last week. Therefore the bears have easily broken the 0.9980 support level. The breakout of this level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9750 as the next target.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0851 will confirm that the downtrend from 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the resistance level at 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 04, 2011, 11:38:06 AMUSD/CHF candlestick analysis for January 4, 2011

The USD/CHF currency pair is continuing to reach all-time lows. The viewpoint on the currency pair is still bearish. The breakout of the support level 0.9350 targeted the USD/CHF pair to 0.9300 with 0.9250 as the next target.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF has formed the combination of candlesticks Falling Three Methods which indicates the downside movement.
This combination of candlesticks shows that the USD/CHF was increasing during a couple of weeks, but the rebound took place after the USD/CHF failed to break out the level of 1.0066. This means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence. The downside movement is supported by the fact that the currency pair broke through the line of the uptrend.
A breakthrough of support level of 0.9850 confirms this point of view.
It is recommended to place the stop-orders slightly above 0.9560 as the breakout of this level will target the currency pair to 0.9669.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 04, 2011, 11:45:10 AMAUD/USD candlestick analysis for January 4, 2011

The AUD/USD is rolling back after reaching a new all-time high. Nevertheless, the viewpoint on this pair is still bullish due to the continuing uptrend.
Earlier on a daily chart the AUD/USD has formed the combination of candlesticks Bullish Engulfing which indicates the uprising movement, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed near the support level of 0.9537, where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound after a downside movement took place. This combination of candlesticks provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct.
However, in case the reversal takes place and the AUD/USD breaks through the support level of 0.9825, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537.   


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Post Merge: January 04, 2011, 11:52:11 AMGBP/USD candlestick analysis for January 4, 2011

On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD has failed to break through the resistance level at 1.5650 to rebound further. The viewpoint on the pair is still bearish.
Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break the resistance level of 1.5900. Nevertheless, if the GBP/USD manages to close above the 1.5650 level, it will be recommended to close short positions since this will lead to advance to 1.5900.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 04, 2011, 01:08:05 PMUSD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 4, 2011

Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. The USD/JPY is expected to move upwards to the resistance level 82.85, where 50.0 Fibonacci correction level is located.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.



Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

[badman]

Fundamental Analysis, January 04, 2011


Asia's stock markets have climbed this morning to a high of two and a half years based on the positive trend recorded yesterday at Wall Street. As such, Japan's Nikkei was up by 1.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed about 0.5%, the Shanghai stock exchange strengthened by about 1.3%, whereas the South Korean KRX climbed by 0.4%.

In the American macroeconomic sphere, ISM had reported yesterday that activity in the United States manufacturing sector had increased this December for the 17th month running, expanding at the highest rate in the last 7 month, climbing in December to a level of 57 points, as compared to 56.6 points in the previous month. This climb was predicted by economists. Construction expenditures in the United States grew for the third month running, this according to macroeconomic data published today in the United States.

The American Department of Commerce reported yesterday that construction expenditures in the United States rose in November by about 0.4%, a third monthly rise in a row. This rise was sharper than the 0.2% rise predicted by economists.

The European stock markets took 2011 by storm, recording an extremely hard daily rise due to sharper than expected rise in activity in the Eurozone's manufacturing sector. By the daily close, the Frankfurt exchange closed at a 1.1% rise, Paris leaped up by 2.5%, Milano climbed 1.3%, while no trade took place in London yesterday due to continued New Year's holidays.

As we said, the Market Economics Research Company announced yesterday that the index of manufacturing activity in the Eurozone rose in December to a level of 57.1 points, as compared to 55.3 in the previous months, beating preliminary estimates that only a 56.8 climb would occur.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 4, 2011


4-hour timeframe








Overview:
Euro has been demonstrating upwards movement. The buy signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph and the price managed to fixate above the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, the first target for the upside movement is 1.3502 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.3639. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3255), if the price manages to fixate below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are narrowing and directed up, thus pointing to the correction against the current upside movement. The MACD is ascending, indicating the current correction movement.
 

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3502; in case this level is passed the target will be 1.3639. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3255. Long positions should be opened only in case the MACD reverses up.
 

In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

 

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

 

Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com







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USD/CAD Upwards Breach is Expected Janaury 03, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





USD/CAD

The USD/CAD pair is beginning to form a bottom after failing to breach the strong support level around 0.9900. The trend line that accompanied the wave of downwards movements since it began about two weeks ago, will form a buy trigger for us should it be breached from below.

An upwards breach through the trend line is expected to pave the way back to a balance level of 1.0000, and later on even to a resistance level around 1.0070. The stop loss movement can be placed in a relative proximity, slightly under the last local low around 0.9860.


Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 03 to January 07, 2011


_____WEEKLY_______

Weekly - R3 = 1.3855

Weekly - R2 = 1.3639

Weekly - R1 = 1.3502

Weekly Pivot = 1.3286

Weekly - S1 = 1.3149

Weekly - S2 = 1.2933

Weekly - S3 = 1.2796





_____MONTHLY______

Monthly - R3 = 1.4111

Monthly - R2 = 1.3804

Monthly - R1 = 1.3584

Monthly Pivot = 1.3277

Monthly - S1 = 1.3057

Monthly - S2 = 1.2750

Monthly - S3 = 1.2530
 



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com

[insta_poster]

EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)

This week the EUR/GBP currency pair has been trading on the downside after it could not break the support level at 0.8650. As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rollback took place.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 05, 2011, 12:00:49 PMAUD/USD candlestick analysis for January 5, 2011

The AUD/USD is rolling back further after reaching a new all-time high. Nevertheless, the viewpoint on this pair is still bullish due to the continuing uptrend.
Earlier on a daily chart the AUD/USD has formed the combination of candlesticks Bullish Engulfing which indicates the uprising movement, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed near the support level of 0.9537, where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound after a downside movement took place. This combination of candlesticks provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct.
However, in case the reversal takes place and the AUD/USD breaks through the support level of 0.9825, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537.      

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 05, 2011, 12:06:36 PMUSD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 5, 2011

The USD/JPY pair has failed to break the Fibonacci correction level at 38.2 to rebound further.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. The USD/JPY is expected to move upwards to the resistance level 82.85, where 50.0 Fibonacci correction level is located.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Post Merge: January 05, 2011, 12:12:28 PMUSD/CHF candlestick analysis for January 5, 2011

USD/CHF candlestick analysis for January 5, 2011
The USD/CHF currency pair is testing the upper limit of the downtrend. However, the viewpoint on the currency pair is still bearish. As mentioned before, breakout of the support level 0.9350 targeted the USD/CHF pair to 0.9300 with 0.9250 as the next target.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF has formed the combination of candlesticks Falling Three Methods which indicates the downside movement.
This combination of candlesticks shows that the USD/CHF was increasing during a couple of weeks, but the rebound took place after the USD/CHF failed to break out the level of 1.0066. This means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence. The downside movement is supported by the fact that the currency pair broke through the line of the uptrend.
A breakthrough of support level of 0.9850 confirms this point of view.
It is recommended to place the stop-orders slightly above 0.9560 as the breakout of this level will target the currency pair to 0.9669.



Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Post Merge: January 05, 2011, 12:25:05 PMUSD/CAD technical analysis for January 5, 2011

Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9750, 0.9700
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is making a strong rebound after a drop to 0.9891. At the moment the viewpoint to the pair is bearish.
As mentioned before, low trading volume caused exaggerated fluctuations of this currency pair last week. Therefore the bears have easily broken the 0.9980 support level. The breakout of this level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9750 as the next target.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0851 will confirm that the downtrend from 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the resistance level at 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.



Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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